客轮运营重大安全风险评估与管理——基于“4·16”韩国世越号沉船事故的分析  

Passenger ship safety Risk Assessment and Management with“4·16”Sewol wreck accident as the example

作　　者：卢文刚 鲍雅[3] Lu Wengang;Bao Ya

机构地区：[1]暨南大学应急管理学院 [2]暨南大学公共安全教育政校企协同创新促进会 [3]新加坡国立大学

出　　处：《风险灾害危机研究》2018年第2期42-69,共28页Journal of Risk, Disaster & Crisis Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“快速城市化进程中的城市轨道交通突发事件应急能力评价体系及其实证研究”(12BGL108);2016年度上海市人民政府决策咨询研究邮轮经济专项课题“邮轮重大灾难事故预警及救援机制研究”(2015/2016-Z-J11);广东省科技计划项目“优先发展城市公共交通战略下广东城市公共交通安全生产突发事件监测预警体系研究”(2012B031500010)阶段研究成果

摘　　要：经济的高速发展和收入的显著提升促进了大众对于多样化出行方式例如客轮旅行的需求。与此同时,近年来国内外频繁发生的客轮沉没事件也不断敲响安全警钟。采用层次分析法(AHP)和事故致因理论构建客轮沉船风险评价模型,从船舶自身因素、人为因素、通航环境因素和管理因素四方面研究分析了客轮沉船事故的基本特点,并运用客轮沉船风险评价模型对“4·16韩国世越号”客轮沉船事故进行剖析,在此基础上提出防控此类安全事故的策略建议。With the rapid development of economy and people s material level,society faces a rising demand on passenger ships,especially on the international cruise.Meanwhile,the international and domestic passenger ship sinking accidents,which occur frequently in recent years,have sounded the security alarm to the relevant regulators.This paper uses AHP to take risk analysis on ferry sinking accident and establish risk evaluation model for passenger safety and reliability.Prior to using the analytic hierarchy process,this paper uses accident tree method to divide various factors that may cause a passenger ship sank.These factors mainly come from the human factor,ship factors,navigation environment factors and management factors in order to improve the scientific,validity and accuracy of the analytic hierarchy process.Finally,this paper takes 4·16 Sewol wreck accident as the example and uses a risk assessment model for the risk analysis,and concludes what measures need to be taken to prevent this kind of accident.

关 键 词：应急管理 沉船事故 事故树“世越号” 风险分析 

分 类 号：D731.26[政治法律—政治学] D035[政治法律—中外政治制度]