基于微观交通模型的核电厂应急撤离模式研究  

The Emergency Evacuation Based on the Microscopic Traffic Model

作　　者：张倩影 王海峰[2] 刘占阳 陈谦[2] ZHANG Qian-ying;WANG Hai-feng;LIU Zhan-yang;CHEN Qian(Cross-strait Tsinghua Research Institute,Xiamen,Fujian Prov. 100036,China;Suzhou Nuclear Power Research Institute,Suzhou,Jiangsu Prov. 215000,China)

机构地区：[1]清华海峡研究院(厦门),福建厦门100036 [2]苏州热工研究院有限公司,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《中国核电》2019年第1期16-21,共6页China Nuclear Power

基　　金：厦门市产学研协同创新及科技合作项目(3502Z20172013)<基于GIS的核电站烟羽应急计划区公众撤离仿真平台的关键技术研究>

摘　　要：核电厂应急撤离是指当核电厂在运行期间发生重大核事故导致或可能导致大量放射性物质被释放到大气环境时,所采取的一种能够有效避免或减少公众辐射危害的应急防护措施。在核电厂发生重大核安全事故时,组织核电厂工作人员和应急计划区内(EPZ)公众有序、快速撤离到应急计划区外是核电厂应急计划的重要组成内容,也是事故情况下保障核电厂工作人员及周边公众健康和安全的重要途径。基于微观交通模型的核电厂应急撤离是以追踪单个个体的撤离行动轨迹为基础来对撤离时间进行估算分析的一种方法,不但可以详细地记录每个撤离个体的出发时间、行驶路径、最大速度、平均速度、拥堵时间、结束时间,而且还能得到撤离过程中各条道路的通行能力、拥堵状况。本文通过调研国内外核事故应急撤离条件评价方法、模式和成果,根据我国实际情况提出适用于我国核事故应急撤离条件的核电厂应急撤离微观交通模型。Emergency evacuation of nuclear power plants refers to an emergency protection measure that can effectively avoid or reduce public radiation hazards when a nuclear power plant has a major nuclear accident or may cause a large amount of radioactive materials released to the atmosphere during operation. When a major nuclear safety accident happened, the orderly and rapid evacuation of the staff and the public within the emergency planning zone (EPZ) outside of the zone is an important component of the plant emergency plan, and also an important way for the health and safety of the plant staff and the surrounding public. The emergency evacuation based on the microscopic traffic model is a method to estimate the evacuation time according to the trajectory of the evacuation of individuals. It can not only record the departure time, driving path and maximum speed of each evacuated individual in detail, average speed, congestion time, end time, and the traffic capacity and congestion status of each road during the evacuation process. This paper investigates methods, modes and results of emergency evacuation conditions for nuclear accident, and proposes a micro-transportation model for emergency evacuation suitable for nuclear accident conditions in China according to the actual situation.

关 键 词：微观交通模型 应急撤离 撤离时间估算 应急计划区 

分 类 号：TL48[核科学技术—核技术及应用]