论印度对华政策的对冲刚性与合作韧性  

On the Resilience of India's China Strategy with respect to Hedging and Cooperation

作　　者：刘红良[1] Liu Hongliang

机构地区：[1]赣南师范大学新加坡研究中心

出　　处：《南亚研究》2019年第1期1-28,144,145,共30页South Asian Studies

摘　　要：近年来印度对华政策中的对冲趋向日益显露,在多个领域有较为明显的体现。同时,印度在经历对华关系的波折与摩擦后总会有一定程度的反弹,两国关系呈现出在多个议题与领域合作的态势,显现出中印关系中合作诉求的韧性。文章围绕这一主题,分析国际关系中对冲政策的内涵与适用性及其与印度策略选择的相关性。与辛格政府相比而言,莫迪政府对华政策中的对冲性更为直接、鲜明,在对待中国"一带一路"倡议的行为立场及"洞朗对峙"的处置中得以验证。之后,两国关系峰回路转,改善关系的欲求与举措同样显著。分析印度对华政策中对冲与合作的"双重因子"时可以发现,既有印度观念认知的根源、也有两国外交与安全导向的部分交叉和重叠,更有国际体系进程赋予印度的有利时机的影响。在辨清印度对华政策的驱动的基础上,才能对印度政府的对华对冲行为有清醒认识并审慎应对,着力把握两国关系中的合作内驱力,推动中印关系不断向良性发展和转化。In recent years,hedging has become a much more prominent aspect of India’s China strategy,and it is manifest in several areas.At the same time,as India has experienced ups and downs or periods of frictions in its relations with China,it has also developed a tendency towards rebounding with a cooperative stance with respect to particular issues around which India and China might collaborate.This pattern illustrates the resilience of cooperation between India and China.This article analyzes the implications and applicability of hedging strategies in international relations,and relates this to India’s strategy choice.After the Modi administration came into office,in contrast with the Singh government,its China policy shifted starkly in favor of a direct hedging strategy,as evidenced by its stance towards the Belt and Road Initiative,and approach to the Doklam Standoff.To follow,relations between the two states went through a series of peaks and troughs,with India retaining a desire and adopting measures to improve relations.In considering the twin elements of India’s China policy,namely hedging and cooperation,we find that they are rooted in both India’s own sense of selfawareness,as well as in diplomatic and security developments between the two states,while being influenced even more by the advantageous position that India occupies within the international system.Only by explicating the fundamental drivers of India’s China strategy can we have a clear understanding of why the Indian government engages in hedging behavior,and understand how to respond.In this way,we can endeavor to promote the drivers of cooperation within relations between the two states,and advance India-China relations in the direction of continuous improvement.

关 键 词：对华政策 辛格政府 莫迪政府 中印关系 "一带一路" 洞朗对峙 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学]