社会保障与流动人口二孩生育意愿——来自基本医疗保险的经验证据  

Social Security and Second Birth Intension of Floating Population: Empirical Evidence from Basic Medical Insurance

作　　者：黄秀女 徐鹏 HUANG Xiu-nv;XU Peng

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院 [2]华东理工大学社会学博士后流动站 [3]上海财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2019年第4期104-117,共14页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"新常态背景下我国试点地区长期护理保险制度可持续性及策略优化研究"(项目编号:17YJCZH067);中央高校基本科研业务费探索研究基金项目"最优卫生投入规模与经济增长"(项目编号:WE1824005);全国统计科学研究项目一般项目"人口老龄化对经济潜在产出水平的影响研究"(项目编号:2018LY68)

摘　　要：社会保障对生育意愿具有至关重要的影响。现有文献多关注于社会保障与生育意愿之间的替代关系,忽视了二者补贴效应的可能。基于此,文章采用国家卫计委2014年流动人口卫生计生动态监测数据,使用二元选择Logit模型考察了基本医疗保险对流动人口二孩生育意愿的影响,研究发现:(1)基本医疗保险对二孩生育意愿具有异质性的影响,主导效应因其筹资模式、相对补贴强度而有差异;(2)补贴强度较高的新农合以补贴效应为主,而补贴强度较低、自我储蓄为主的城镇职工医疗保险则以挤出效应为主;(3)新农合对低收入新生代流动人口二孩生育意愿的补贴效应更强。这表明,带有补贴性质的社会保障有助于二孩生育意愿的提高,而过高的社会保障缴费负担则起到抑制作用。文章发现政府对社会保障进行"靶向"的适度调整来缓解养育成本可达到改善二孩政策效果的目标。Social security has a vital effect on fertility intention.The existing literatures focus on the substitution relationship between social security and fertility intention,but ignore the possibility of subsidy effect.For this reason,this paper uses the dynamic survey data of the floating population in 2014 provided by the Health and Family Planning Commission,and applies binary logistic model to examine the impact of basic medical insurance on the second birth intention of floating population.The results show that:(1) the basic medical insurance has a heterogeneous effect on the second birth intention,and the dominant effect varies according to its funding model and subsidy intensity.(2) The New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) with high subsidy intensity can increase the second birth intention,while the Medical Insurance of Urban Workers (MIUW) with low subsidy intensity and main propensity of self-saving has a negative impact on the second birth intention.(3) The NCMS has a stronger subsidy effect on the second birth intention among the low income new generation floating population.It shows that the social security with the nature of subsidies can help to improve the second birth intention while the excessive burden of social security payment inhibits it.These findings imply that the government can improve the effect of the two-child policy by “targeted” adjusting social security moderately to alleviate the parenting costs.

关 键 词：社会保障 基本医疗保险 二孩生育意愿 补贴效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]