社会信任、不完全契约与长期经济增长  

Social Trust, Incomplete Contracts and Long-term Growth

作　　者：吕朝凤[1] 陈汉鹏 Santos López-Leyva LYU Chaofeng;CHEN Hanpeng(South-Western University of Finance and Economics;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Autonomous University of Baja California)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [3]墨西哥下加利福尼亚自治大学(蒂华纳分校)经济学与国际关系学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第3期4-20,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJL035)的资助

摘　　要：本文将不完全契约和社会信任引入包含R&D创新的经济增长模型,通过Nash-Rubinstein讨价还价谈判和Bloom-Sadun-Reenen信任模型来刻画企业、中间品厂商和技术创新的关系,在一个内生增长框架下研究了不完全契约条件下社会信任对经济增长的影响。研究发现,社会信任将会促进长期经济增长;不完全契约的实施会扩大其对长期增长率的正影响。在此基础上,使用2000—2010年中国省区25个工业行业数据,采用交互项计量模型,并运用两阶段最小二乘法进行计量检验。结果显示,在控制了FDI、专业化以及社会信任水平的其他传导渠道后,该结论依然稳健。本文在为理解社会信任与经济增长的关系提供新视角的同时,也为政府加强社会诚信建设、促进长期经济增长提供了理论与经验支持。Economic growth is a core issue of economic research.The debate about the roots of economic growth has evolved with the development of economics.Early studies focused on factors of production,stressing the role of the accumulation of human and physical capital in growth.Since the beginning of the 21st century,economists have emphasized the importance of formal institutions as argued by Acemoglu et al.(2001)and Rodrik et al.(2004).Recently,the focus has shifted to the role of informal institutions,which are deeper rooted in society and embedded in the culture and history of a country.This strand of the literature includes Barro&McCleary(2003),Campante&Drott(2015),Nunn(2009),and Spolaore&Wacziarg(2013).Trust,the core of informal institutions,has received attention from Durlauf&Fafchamps(2005),Dearmon&Grier(2009),and Capie(2016).In this paper,we introduce the trust model proposed by Bloom et al.(2012)into the incomplete contracts framework to construct an endogenous growth model with social trust,incomplete contracts,and technological innovation.This allows us to discuss the impact of social trust on the economic growth of a country or region from the perspective of incomplete contracts.The model suggests that in an economy with incomplete contracts,increasing social trust promotes long-run growth.Increased contract intensity strengthens the positive effect of social trust on growth.This finding shows that social trust both promotes economic growth and influences the characteristics of the industrial composition of economic growth through the contract intensity of industries.Based on the theoretical research,we use an interaction econometric model with data from 27 industries in 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2010 to test two main predictions of the model.We use two historical variables,the number of registered students in Christian Lower Primary Schools at the beginning of the 20th century and the density of the provincial road network in 1937,to effectively control for the endogeneity problem of social trust.Th

关 键 词：社会信任 不完全契约 经济增长 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]