雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估  

Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Lei Zhou coastal areas

作　　者：张敏[1] 罗军[1] 胡金磊[1] 曾学智[1] ZHANG Min;LUO Jun;HU Jinlei;ZENG Xuezhi(South China Sea Prediction Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510310, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广东广州510310

出　　处：《热带海洋学报》2019年第2期1-12,共12页Journal of Tropical Oceanography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC1401503);广东水利科技创新项目(2016-02)~~

摘　　要：文章基于近岸海洋数值模式ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters)和近海波浪数值模式SWAN (simulating waves nearshore),建立雷州市高分辨率的风暴潮?海浪耦合漫滩数值模型,并反演了对雷州市影响较为严重的1415号台风"海鸥"的风暴潮过程。经过对比分析得出,波浪对雷州市沿海海域的风暴潮产生重要影响。然后以8007号台风路径为基础,构造了7个不同等级共35组台风风暴潮案例,计算分析出不同等级台风强度下雷州市风暴潮淹没范围及水深。900hPa等级下,雷州市淹没面积达到463.2km2。文章还构造了60组可能最大风暴潮事件集,计算得到雷州市可能最大台风风暴潮淹没范围及水深分布。在可能最大台风影响下,大量海水将漫过海堤,造成极其严重的淹没灾害,雷州市总的淹没面积可达602.0km2,其中465.8km2的淹没面积达到了危险性等级Ⅰ级,淹没水深大于3m。雷州市东岸的淹没灾害大于西岸。A storm surge and wave coupled inundation simulation model for Lei Zhou coastal areas at high resolution has been established based on ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters) and SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) ocean numerical models. A total of 1415 typhoon cases that seriously impacted Lei Zhou were simulated. The result of contrastive analysis shows that wave has a significant impact on storm surge in Lei Zhou coastal areas. We designed 35 typhoon cases based on 8007 typhoons, and reserve flooded area and submerged depth for seven different grades. The inundated area of Lei Zhou can reach 463.2 km 2 under 900 hPa grade. We developed 60 cases of possible maximum storm surge and calculated the biggest inundated extent and depth. Under the impact of maximum typhoon, the sea water will spill over seawalls and cause serious flooding disaster. The total submerged area is 602.0 km 2 in Lei Zhou. The area whose dangerousness is first grade with flooding depth bigger than 3 m is 465.8 km 2. The eastern coastal areas of Lei Zhou will face larger storm surge disaster risk than the western coastal areas. The results of the study have important implications for guiding prevention and mitigation work of storm surge disaster in Lei Zhou.

关 键 词：风暴潮 耦合模型 淹没 危险性评估 

分 类 号：P732.25[天文地球—海洋科学] P731.23