多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“灿都”(2010)预报中的应用研究  

Experiments of assimilating Doppler radar data in forecast of Typhoon Chanthu

作　　者：戚佩霓 沈菲菲[1] 寇蕾蕾[1] 楚志刚[1] 许冬梅[1] QI Peini;SHEN Feifei;KOU Leilei;CHU Zhigang;XU Dongmei(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate andEnvironment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《热带海洋学报》2019年第2期20-31,共12页Journal of Tropical Oceanography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506404;2018YFC1506603;2017YFC1502102;2017YFC1502103);国家自然科学基金项目(G41805016;G41805070);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20170940;BK20160954);气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题(KLME201807; KLME201808);江苏省气象局北极阁基金项目(BJG201604);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目(2016r043;2016r27)~~

摘　　要：文章基于中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),采用了两部雷达径向风资料,进行单一时间分析以初始化台风"灿都"(Chanthu),比较研究了同化雷达径向速度(Vr)对台风"灿都"分析和预报的影响。结果表明:同化雷达径向风的作用主要体现在台风强度和环流结构的调整,且在同化达到一定时长后,对改进同化后的预报分析有积极效应。同化试验改进台风的初始风场以及台风环流中心的热力和动力结构、强度和位置,进而提高18h预报的台风结构、路径、强度。Based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model and WRF-3DVAR (3-Dimensional Variational) assimilation system, we conduct a single time analysis to initialize Typhoon Chanthu and compare the effects of assimilation radar radial velocity (V r ) on Typhoon Chanthu analysis and forecast, with two radar radial wind data. We show that the role of assimilating radar radial wind is mainly reflected in the adjustment of typhoon intensity and circulation structure;and after the assimilation reaches a certain length of time, it has a positive effect on the improvement of forecast. The assimilation test improves the typhoon's initial wind field and the thermal and dynamic structures, intensity, and location of the typhoon circulation center, thereby improving the typhoon structure, path, and intensity predicted for future 18 hours.

关 键 词：雷达径向风资料 资料同化 天气预报模式的三维变分同化系统 台风 

分 类 号：P732.42[天文地球—海洋科学]