斯大林是怎样掉入“修昔底德陷阱”的——战后苏美从合作走向对抗的路径和原因  

How Stalin Fell into the So-called “Thucydides Trap”: Path and Causes for the Soviet Union and the U.S. from Cooperation to Confrontation in the Post-WWⅡ Decades

作　　者：沈志华[1] 余伟民[1] Shen Zhihua;Yu Weimin

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学历史系,周边国家研究院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2019年第1期3-20,共18页Russian Studies

摘　　要：二战后期美苏主导下构建的"雅尔塔体系"为战后形成美苏合作的"新型大国关系"提供了历史机遇。雅尔塔体系的基础是大国利益的重合与战略协调,但美苏之间国家制度和意识形态的异质性致使双方的战略互疑不断升级,导致美国重返欧洲与苏联形成对抗。在斯大林采取移植苏联体制和激活"世界革命"机制的背景下,亚洲"中间地带"的革命"溢出"了雅尔塔体系,一个并非事先"计划"的区域性政治变动将美苏引向全面冷战。当前中国的内部和外部条件与战后苏联已有很大区别,中美两国完全有可能也应该建立起合作互利的新型大国关系,而避免走向新的"冷战"。The "Yalta System", which was built under the leadership of the United States and the Soviet Union in the late phase of World War II, provided a historical opportunity for the "new type of major country relationship" between the Soviet Union and the U.S. The Yalta System is based on the overlap and strategic coordination of interests of major counttries, but the heterogeneity of national systems and ideologies between these two countries has led to the escalation of mutual strategic mistrusts, resulting in the U.S. pivot to Europe and confrontation against the Soviet Union. Against the backdrop of Stalin's transplanting the Soviet Union model and activating the "world Revolution^^ mechanism, revolutions in the “middle zone" of Asia "overflowed'' the Yalta system. An unplanned regional political change led the U.S. and the Soviet Union to a total cold war. At present, both China's domestic and external conditions are quite different from the post-war Soviet Union, it is absolutely possible that China and the U.S. could and should establish a new type of major country relationship of cooperation and mutual benefits, avoiding heading towards a new "Cold War".

关 键 词：苏联外交 苏美关系 冷战起源 中美关系 

分 类 号：D751.2[政治法律—政治学]