中国保税区贸易空间效应的影响因素分析  

Research on the Influencing Factors of Trade Spatial Effect of China Bonded Area

作　　者：蔡春林 CAI Chun-lin

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2019年第2期54-66,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(15BGJ026)

摘　　要：文章运用中国保税区及所在城市数据,采用空间滞后模型及空间误差模型研究了中国保税区规模的影响因素。研究结果表明,区域的对外开放水平与人力资本水平对保税区贸易规模呈现正向关系,同时由于投资存在"替代效应",区域的投资水平与保税区贸易规模呈现负向关系。进一步分析上述影响因素对保税区进口、出口规模的作用,结果发现:产业结构、投资水平与保税区出口规模呈现负向关系,开放水平与保税区出口规模呈现正向关系;人力资本水平与进口规模呈现正向关系。鉴于此,应当坚持对外开放战略,提高区域劳动要素质量,强化保税区政策的区域差异性,提高中国保税区贸易发展的规模和质量,发展更高层次的开放型经济。This paper studies the influencing factors of China’s bonded area by applying the spatial lag model as well as the spatial error model based on the data of the bonded areas and cities in China. The results show that the level of regional opening-up and human capital has a positive relationship with the trade scale of the bonded area. Meanwhile, due to the "substitution effect" of investment, the level of regional investment has a negative relationship with the trade scale of the bonded area. Further analysis is made on the effects of the above factors on the import and export scale of the bonded area. The results reveal that the industrial structure and investment level correlate negatively with the export scale of the bonded area,and the opening level correlates positively with it. The level of human capital is positively related to the import scale. Above all, we should adhere to the opening-up strategy, improve the quality of regional labor factors, strengthen the regional differences in the bonded area policies, improve the scale and quality of trade development of China bonded areas, and develop a higher-level open economy.

关 键 词：保税区 空间滞后模型 空间误差模型 贸易空间效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]