贸易便利化能否通过贸易创造促进省际贸易——来自中国贸易便利化调研的证据  

Would Trade Facilitation Promote China's Inter-Provincial Trade by Trade Creation?——Evidence from the Survey on the Chinese Trade Facilitation

作　　者：崔鑫生[1] 郭龙飞 李芳[3] CUI Xinsheng;GUO Longfei;LI Fang(University of International Business and Economics, 100029;University of International Business and Economics, 100029;China National Intellectual Property Administration,100088)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学公共管理学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [3]国家知识产权局知识产权研究中心

出　　处：《财贸经济》2019年第4期100-115,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急项目"中国(上海)自贸试验区贸易模式转型与贸易便利化研究"(71341044);北京市社会科学基金项目"北京提升跨境贸易营商环境的模式与路径研究"(18JDGLA044);对外经济贸易大学特色项目"贸易便利化指数及其应用"(TS3-04)

摘　　要：本文使用能够由企业判断反馈的、具有省域区分度的变量,通过问卷调查测度了中国的贸易便利化水平,并在此基础上使用开埠通商历史作为工具变量,从贸易创造和贸易转移的视角,用引力模型实证研究了贸易便利化对中国各省份国际贸易和省际贸易的影响及其作用机理。结果显示,在控制关税等因素的情况下,贸易便利化水平的提升能够大幅提升我国各省份的对外贸易;不同地区贸易便利化作用的差异也揭示了我国对外开放的节奏和效果;虽然贸易便利化会带来贸易转移效应,短期抑制省际贸易,但是它能够通过国际贸易促进省际贸易,从而提高国内经济相互融合的水平。This paper selects the companies-recognizable and provinces-identifiable variables to measure the trade facilitation in China based on the investigation results of Chinese provincial trade facilitation and studies the impact and mechanism of provincial trade facilitation on import, export and inter-provincial trade by using the gravity model, based on the theory of trade creation and trade diversion, with trading ports history as the instrumental variable. Tariffs and other factors controlled, the result shows that, though it leads to trade diversion, the improvement of provincial trade facilitation is able to promote greatly the foreign trade of provinces in China, and to a certain extent boost inter-provincial trade. Trade facilitation has varying effects in different areas according to the pace and effect of China's opening-up and pushes up the economic integration of provinces.

关 键 词：贸易便利化 贸易创造 贸易转移 省际贸易 两阶段最小二乘法 

分 类 号：F752.1[经济管理—国际贸易]