基于全局灵敏度的光伏不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定的影响评估  

Assessment of influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on power system small-signal stability based on global sensitivity

作　　者：毛玉宾 刘万勋 黄景慧 张丽华 蒋小亮 于琳琳 朱蜀 刘开培[2] 秦亮[2] Mao Yubin;Liu Wanxun;Huang Jinghui;Zhang Lihua;Jiang Xiaoliang;Yu Linlin;Zhu Shu;Liu Kaipei;Qin Liang(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450052,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,河南郑州450052 [2]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《可再生能源》2019年第4期573-581,共9页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国网河南省电力公司科技项目(5217L0170010);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51607125)

摘　　要：介绍一种基于全局灵敏度分析的光伏不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定性影响的量化评估方法,利用该方法可辨认对电力系统小信号稳定性影响最大的不确定因素。文章介绍了包含光伏的电力系统小信号建模方法,包括光伏的不确定性模型和光伏出力相关性的处理方法;阐述了各种不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定性的影响机理。介绍了全局灵敏度在电力系统不确定因素排序中的应用,包括一阶灵敏度指标(FOSI)和总灵敏度指标(TESI)的计算方法和流程。通过9母线和68母线系统验证了文章所提出方法的有效性。研究结果表明,该方法可以准确地对电力系统中的不确定性因素进行排序,从而提高不确定性分析的效率,为电力系统的规划和运行提供理论支撑。This paper introduces a global sensitivity analysis based method to measure the influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on power system small signals. The method is proposed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on stability,and the purpose of this method is to find the uncertainties that have the greatest impact on the small signal stability of the power system. Firstly,the small-signal modeling method of power system including photovoltaic is introduced,including the uncertainty model of photovoltaic and the processing method of photovoltaic output power correlation. The mechanism of the influence of photovoltaic uncertainty on the small signal stability of power system is expounded. Then the application of global sensitivity in the ranking of uncertainties in power systems is introduced,including the calculation methods of first-order sensitivity indices (FOSI)and total effect sensitivity indices(TESI). Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the 9-bus and 68-bus system. The results show that the method can accurately rank the uncertainties in the power system,thereby improving the efficiency of uncertainty analysis and providing theoretical support for operation and planning of the power system.

关 键 词：全局灵敏度 光伏电站 不确定性 小信号稳定性 Sobol指标 

分 类 号：TK519[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]