产业结构变化对生产率增长及其波动趋势的影响——基于中国各省1978-2016年发展经验的分析  

The Role of Structural Transformation in Productivity Growth and Its Fluctuation—— Evidence from cross-province experiences in China during the 1978-2016 period

作　　者：周克[1] Zhou Ke(Economics School,Southwest Minzu University,Sichuan Chengdu)

机构地区：[1]西南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《宏观质量研究》2019年第1期43-59,共17页Journal of Macro-quality Research

摘　　要：将含有扩张和收缩部门的转移-份额方法转变为年度增长率形式,本文分析了中国各省市自1978年以来产业结构变化对总生产率增长及其变动趋势的影响。结果发现,内部效应和结构效应分别对总生产率增长平均贡献了85%和15%。虽然部门内生产率主导了总生产率增长,但是结构变化在很大程度上影响了地区间增长差异,有将近50%的高增长地区和40%的低增长地区总生产率增长率与均值的差距主要取决于结构效应。农业和服务业生产率增速对结构变化产生了重要影响。从部门影响角度看,工业生产率增长贡献了各省市总生产率增长的一半,但是,服务业在很大程度上决定了增长表现,服务业生产率增长较慢是一半低增长地区总生产率增长低于均值的主要原因。通过改变产业结构,服务业生产率提高加大了对总生产率的影响。所有省市的结构效应都随时间推移呈现下降趋势,但是,结构效应不是各省经济增长减速的原因,总生产率增长率变化趋势与内部效应变化基本一致。三个部门的共同增长推动了绝大多数省市总生产率的增长加速,而同时减速—尤其是工业—则导致了增长减速。This paper, transforming the traditional shift-share composition to annual growth rates, examines the influence of structural change on the growth rate of economy-wide productivity and its fluctuations across the provinces in China since 1978. The major findings are as follows:1. The respective contributions of the internal and the structural components to the overall productivity growth per annum are 85% and 15% on average;2. The differential patterns of structural change account for the bulk of the difference in regional growth rates;3. The productivity growth in the regional secondary industry accounts for half of the economy-wide productivity growth across the provinces on average, whereas the slow growth of productivity in services is chiefly responsible for the performances in half of the low-growth provinces;4. The effects of structural change in all provinces diminish over time. But it is the slow growth of internal productivity, especially productivity in the secondary industry, that causes growth slowdowns across the provinces.

关 键 词：产业结构变化 转移-份额法 劳动生产率 增长减速 省际增长差异 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]