增加值贸易视角下中国区际贸易成本的测算与分解  

Estimation and Decomposition of China's Interregional Trade Cost from the Perspective of Value Added Trade

作　　者：袁凯华 彭水军[2] 余远 Yuan Kaihua;Peng Shuijun;Yu Yuan

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [2]厦门大学国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《统计研究》2019年第2期63-75,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"气候变化与国际贸易问题研究"(13&ZD167);国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘一带一路’区域价值链构建与中国产业转型升级研究"(18ZDA038);厦门大学人文社会科学创新团队"国际贸易与产业发展"项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;20720171001)的资助

摘　　要：本文在Novy(2013)的基础之上,利用1997年、2002年和2007年区域间投入产出表,首次基于增加值贸易视角进行了我国区际贸易成本变动的测算与分解。结果显示:首先,不同于传统贸易流量的测度,基于增加值贸易视角的测度表明,1997-2007年的区际贸易成本不仅没有上升,反而大幅下降。其次,尽管当前的区际贸易成本有所下降,但是这种下降主要体现为以内陆地区和初级产品带动的低端化整合。最后,进一步利用双边分解,本文发现低端化整合的迹象可能在于邻区偏少、产业同构度过高与政策缺失下,东部沿海地区更多利用国外需求进行替代所致。随着东部沿海地区的对外依赖程度提升,区际分工整合将会面临"初级产品分工整合加快→服务行业过度出口→遭受出口俘获→初级产品分工整合进一步加快"的恶性循环。因此,进一步转变发展观念、扭转市场分割激励、加快基础设施建设,才能从根本上提升区际整合质量。Based on Novy(2013), this paper undertakes an estimation and decomposition on China’s inter-regional trade cost changes for the first time by applying the input-output tables among the regions in the years of 1997, 2002 and 2007 from the perspective of value-added trade. The results show that, first of all, unlike the traditional trade flows, the measures based on the value-added trade indicate that the inter-regional trade cost in the decade from 1997 to 2007 does not increase, but on the contrary sharply falls down. Secondly, although the current inter-regional trade cost edges down, this decline embodies mainly the low-end integration in inland areas and driven by primary products. Finally, by further bilateral decomposition, it is found that the sign of low-end integration may be due to the scarcity of neighboring areas, excessive industrial conformability and policy gaps, the eastern coastal areas make the replacement by the external demands. With the increase of external dependence in the eastern coastal areas, the inter-regional division of labor will face a vicious circle of "speed-up of integration of labor division of primary products → excessive export of service industry → suffering from export capture → further acceleration of integration of labor division of primary products". Therefore, the quality of inter-regional integration cannot be enhanced fundamentally unless shifting the concept of development, changing the isolated market incentives, and accelerating infrastructure construction.

关 键 词：区际贸易成本 增加值贸易 低端化整合 双边分解 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]