环境规制的经济效应:“减排”还是“增效”  

Economic Effects of Environmental Regulations “Emission Reduction” or “Efficiency Enhancement”

作　　者：于斌斌 金刚[2] 程中华[3] Yu Binbin;Jin Gang;Cheng Zhonghua

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院 [2]南京大学经济学院 [3]南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院

出　　处：《统计研究》2019年第2期88-100,共13页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文构建了一个关于环境规制经济效应的理论分析框架,并利用城市面板数据和动态空间面板模型实证检验了环境规制的"污染减排"和"提质增效"效应。研究结论显示,我国城市的环境规制具有"只减排、不增效"的经济效应及空间溢出效应,在考虑了一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立。进一步异质性讨论揭示:环境规制"只减排、不增效"的经济效应在东、中、西三个地区均得到验证;环境规制的"减排"效应在国际金融危机以后得到明显增强,但仅增加了企业的"合规成本",尚未形成"创新效应";通过加快产业结构调整可以有效改善环境规制"只减排、不增效"的经济效应;经济发展与能源效率呈"U"型变化趋势,并且我国正处于"U"型结构的左侧,而库兹涅茨环境曲线并未得到我国城市数据的支持。This paper constructs a theoretical and analytical framework for the economic effects of environmental regulations, and tests the "emission reduction" and "efficiency enhancement" effects of environmental regulations by applying the Chinese urban panel data and the dynamic spatial panel model. It is found that the environmental regulations in China has the economic and spatial spillover effects of "emission reductions only without economic efficiency", and the conclusion is still unchanged with a series of robustness tests. A further heterogeneity study reveals that the environmental effects of "emission reductions only without economic efficiency" are validated in those three parts of China, i.e., East, Central and West. After the international financial crisis, the "emission reductions" effects brought about by the environmental regulations have significantly intensified, but only with an increased "compliance cost", and no "innovation effects". The effects of "emission reductions only without economic efficiency" can only be improved efficiently through speeding up the restructuring of industries. The relationship between economic development and energy efficiency presents a trend of U shape, and China is on the left side of the "U", and so far the Kuznets environmental curve has not been confirmed by Chinese city data yet.

关 键 词：环境规制 污染减排 提质增效:Super-DEA 空间动态面板模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]