高房价背后的市场主体博弈分析及调控路径选择——我国主要城市高房价诱因实证解析  

The Competition between Housing Market Entities and the Regulatory Control Path Option: An Empirical Analysis of the Causes of High Housing Prices in Major Cities in China

作　　者：胡吉亚 Hu Jiya(School of Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学金融研究所

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2019年第2期144-155,共12页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：中国社会科学院大学青年英才支持项目"我国房地产市场健康发展长效机制研究"(2019年度);国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国经济发展方式转型中的金融保障体系研究"(项目编号:10AJL005)

摘　　要：文章以我国15座主要城市2012～2017年的面板数据为基础,实证研究了住房市场主体对于房价的影响和各市场主体之间的关系。实证结果显示,我国房价与政府的土地购置费、商业银行的个人住房贷款额度、常住人口数量、中央银行M2供给量、实体经济工业产值增速呈正相关关系,而开发商投资额、购房者的工资收入增速与房价不相关。就市场主体而言,政府土地购置费与开发商投资额、商业银行的个人住房贷款额度皆呈正相关关系。M2供给量与商业银行的个人住房贷款额度正相关,与政府土地购置费、开发商投资额不相关。对于高房价的调控应积极改变土地财政的现状;重点加强对房地产领域贷款的监察;建立货币供给与投放方向预算决算机制;控制房市热度,引导资金更多流向实体经济。Based on the 2012 -2017 panel data in 15 major cities in China, this paper empirically studies the impact of housing market entities on housing prices and the relationship between market entities. The empiric al results are that the housing prices in China are positively related to government land purchase fees, the personal housing loans of commercial banks, the number of permanent residents, the M2 supply quantity of the central bank, and the growth rate of industrial output value of the real economy, while the growth rate of developer investment and the wage income of buyers is not related to housing prices. In terms of market players, government land purchase fees are positively related to developer investment and commercial banks' personal housing loan quotas. The M2 supply of the central bank is positively related to the personal housing loans of commercial banks, but independent of govern me nt land purchase fees and developer investment. Based on these analyses, the paper puts forward the following suggestions: the regulation of high housing prices should actively change the curie nt situation of land finance;the oversight over real estate lending should be strengthened in the early warning mechanism of the banking system;the budget settlement mechanism for money supply and distribution should be established;housing market overheat should be controlled to channel funds into the real economy.

关 键 词：住房市场 房价 政府 商业银行 中央银行 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]