北京市医疗用血短缺的成因及发展趋势预测  

Cause and Trend Forecast of Medical Blood Shortage in Beijing City

作　　者：李晨昕 滕五晓[1] Li Chenxin(School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《医学与社会》2019年第3期6-9,13,共5页Medicine and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目;编号为08BSH008

摘　　要：为深入和系统地探究北京市医疗用血短缺的成因及其发展趋势,通过建立血液供需关系的系统动力学流图模型,进行仿真预测。以2015年为临界点,北京市供血量与需血量的平衡被打破,出现的缺口随时间推移有不断扩大的趋势。针对北京市医疗用血供需矛盾,在分析北京市医疗用血短缺成因的基础上,从降低供血的系统风险、打破地域限制等5个方面,提出了相应的对策与建议。In order to deeply and systematically explore the causes and development trends of medical blood shortage in Beijing, this paper established a system dynamics flow graph model of blood supply and demand relationship, and carried out simulation prediction. It can be seen that 2015 was the critical point when the balance between blood supply and blood demand been broken, and there is a trend for the gap to expand over time. In view of the contradiction between supply and demand of medical blood, this paper analyzed the causes of medical shortage in Beijing, and proposed corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from five aspects, including reducing systemic risk of blood supply and breaking geographical restrictions, etc.

关 键 词：医疗用血 短缺 SD仿真预测 北京 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]