“一带一路”倡议在东南亚的进程与展望  

The Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia:Progress and Prospect

作　　者：李明江[1] 李倩如 LI Mingjiang;LI Qianru(Nanyang Technological University)

机构地区：[1]新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际问题研究院

出　　处：《边界与海洋研究》2019年第2期74-88,共15页Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies

摘　　要：通过分析东南亚地区三个具有代表性的国家——老挝、马来西亚和越南对"一带一路"的态度及其与中国在"一带一路"框架下可能合作的领域,可以发现"一带一路"广受东南亚国家关注,但不同国家反应的积极程度有所不同:以老挝为代表的地区国家,对"一带一路"几乎没有顾虑,期待更多来自中国的投资,希望进一步加强与中国的经济合作;以马来西亚为代表的地区国家,合作愿望较强烈,但同时在一些领域有所保留,尤其是涉及海洋合作;以越南为代表的地区国家,官方表态积极,但由于各种因素与中国的实际合作受到诸多制约。从总体上讲,"一带一路"建设未来会在东南亚持续推进,中国相关部门和投资者应该关注四个方面:切实维持南海和平与稳定、着力改善中国企业在东南亚的形象、更多关注在东南亚投资的政治风险、妥善处理东南亚地区的海外华人问题。Southeast Asia is an important region for the Belt and Road Initiative. This paper attempts to analyse the progress of the BRI in the past five years and prospect of this initiative in the region. We focus on three countries that broadly represent all regional states in terms of their level of positive responsiveness to the BRI and willingness to work with China under this policy platform. The three countries include Laos,Malaysia,and Vietnam. Our findings suggest that all regional countries welcome the BRI,but the levels of their receptiveness vary. Very likely,the BRI will continue to be implemented in the region in the coming years and decades. But there are significant constraints for a smooth progression of the initiative in the region,including the South China Sea disputes,geopolitical contestations,concerns about the quality of Chinese investments,and the ethnic Chinese issue.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 东南亚 中国与东南亚关系 中越关系 中老关系 中马关系 

分 类 号：D822.333[政治法律—政治学] F125[政治法律—外交学]