企业商品价格、利润与投资行为的一致性研究  

Research on the Consistency of Enterprise Commodity Price,Profit and Investment Behavior

作　　者：中国人民银行济南分行课题组 彭江波[2] 高晓辉 赵杉[2] 刘晓东[2] 李小楠 关健[3] Subject Group of the PBC Jinan Branch(PBC Jinan Branch,Shandong Jinan 250021)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行济南分行,山东济南250021 [2]中国人民银行济南分行 [3]中国人民银行菏泽市中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2019年第3期24-33,共10页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：根据新古典经济学理论,商品价格与利润是投资行为函数中的重要变量,随着商品价格上涨、利润增加,企业投资规模相应扩大。2016年以来,山东省工业企业利润开始回升,但固定资产投资却依旧低迷,增速持续低于利润增速,作为传统"引擎"的商品价格和利润带动工业企业投资的作用似乎在弱化。为解开这一谜团,本文以新古典投资模型作为理论基础,通过企业商品价格监测数据和工业企业财务监测数据的横向联动,探索影响工业企业投资的因素,检验山东省工业企业的投资行为是否符合新古典投资理论的行为范式。研究结果显示,在样本稳定、指标可比的情况下,商品价格、利润水平与企业投资呈现出显著的一致性关系;同时,由于存在非效率投资这个非随机扰动项,一致性关系的拟合优度有限。通过进一步讨论非效率投资规模对一致性关系的影响程度发现,在时间、行业维度上,随着非效率投资趋于0,商品价格、利润与投资的一致性关系相应增强。由此得到启示,商品价格、盈利水平是企业投资的"风向标",扩大投资必然要有一定的利润为基础,对企业减税让利是增进其投资意愿的前提。According to the neoclassical economic theory,commodity prices and profits are important variables in the behavioral function of investment. As commodity prices rise and profits increase,the scale of enterprises investment will expand correspondingly. Since 2016,the profits of industrial enterprises in Shandong Province have begun to rise,but the investment in fixed assets has remained sluggish. The growth rate has continued to be lower than the growth rate of profits.As the engine of traditional industry,the role of commodity prices and profits driving industrial enterprises seems to be weakening. In order to solve this problem,this paper uses the neoclassical investment model as the theoretical basis,through the horizontal linkage of enterprise commodity price monitoring data and industrial enterprise financial monitoring data,so as to explore the factors affecting industrial enterprise investment,and test whether the investment behavior conforms to the behavioral paradigm of neoclassical investment theory. The research results show that when the sample is stable and the indicators are comparable,the commodity price and profitability show a significant consistency relationship with the enterprise investment.At the same time,due to the existence of non-efficiency investment,a non-random perturbation term,the goodness of fit of the consistency relationship is limited. By further discussing the impact of non-efficiency investment scale on the consistency relationship,it is found that in time and industry dimension,as non-efficiency investment tends to zero,the consistency of commodity price,profit and investment is correspondingly enhanced. The revelations are the commodity price and profitability are the vane of enterprise investment,the expansion of investment must be based on a certain profit,and the tax reduction for enterprises is the premise to enhance their investment willingness.

关 键 词：商品价格 利润 投资 盈利 减税 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]