基于集对分析的区域城市地价系统稳定性研究——以京津冀地区为例  

Study on the stability of regional urban land price system based on set pair theory——A case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：梁彦庆[1,2] 纪树颖 史思琪 梁丽英 葛京凤[1,2] LIANG Yanqing;JI Shuying;SHI Siqi;LIANG Liying;GE Jingfeng(College of Resource and Environmental Science,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China;Lab of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050024,China)

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄050024

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2019年第3期7-12,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41471090);河北省自然地理学省级重点学科项目(40871053);河北省自然科学基金项目(D2015205225);河北师范大学博士基金项目(L2016B14);河北师范大学2016年度大学生课外学术科技创新项目(BF201631323811)资助

摘　　要：从系统论出发,利用集对理论,以京津冀为研究区域,构建包括城市区位与环境、城市经济发展水平、城市社会发展水平三个准则层17个指标层的城市地价系统稳定性综合评价模型,判定京津冀地区2007～2014年地价系统稳定性,总结地价稳定性的发展趋势。结果表明:1)北京市地价系统处于"稳定"状态,廊坊市由于其现实情况,处于不稳定状态,其他10个城市地价系统均处于"一般稳定"状态;2)当i=1时,北京市地价系统处于"稳定"状态,其他11个城市地价系统均处于"一般稳定"状态;当i=0时,唐山和衡水市地价系统处于"不稳定"状态,其他9个城市地价系统均处于"一般稳定"状态;当i=-1时,北京、承德市地价系统处于"一般稳定"状态,其他10个城市地价系统均处于"不稳定"状态;3)北京市地价系统以同一的趋势存在,其他11个城市地价系统以对立的趋势存在;4)北京、沧州、保定、石家庄、天津、张家口、邯郸、承德、邢台9个城市集对悲观势与乐观势变化范围较大,而衡水、秦皇岛、唐山3个城市变化范围较小。对区域城市地价系统稳定性进行研究,旨在为政府部门加强对城市地价的管理、实现土地资源合理配置提供科学依据。Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was chosen as a sample by using set pair theory to build a comprehensive evaluation model of urban land price system stability based on 17 index layers of three criteria including the location and environment,city urban economy development level,urban social development level.Then the stability of land price system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2007 to 2014 was analyzed and the development trend of land price stability was summarized.As result,the set pair theory could be applied to the stability of the land price system,and the value of the difference degree i can reflect the stability state of the land price system.At present,the land price system of Beijing is in a"stable"state,the land price system in other 11 cities are in a"general stability"state except LangFang.Beijing’s land price system is the same trend there,and the other 11 cities’are the opposing trends.Set pair potentials of pessimistic and optimistic of Beijing,Cangzhou,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Tianjin,Zhangjiakou,Handan,Chengde and Xingtai change on a larger range,and the system is likely to improve,but that of Hengshui,Qinhuangdao and Tangshan change in a small range and it is difficult to improve in a short time.The study on the stability of regional urban land price system provides a scientific basis for government departments to strengthen the management of urban land price and realize the rational allocation of land resources.

关 键 词：城市地价系统 稳定性 集对分析法 京津冀 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]