气候变化和人类活动影响下的北大河流域径流变化分析  

Analysis on runoff variation in the Beida River Basin under the influence of climate change and human activities

作　　者：王金凤 WANG Jinfeng(College of Geographical Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Linfen 041000,China)

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学地理科学学院,临汾041000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2019年第3期86-91,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41701045)资助

摘　　要：基于北大河流域周边台站的气象水文数据,综合运用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测和Hurst指数(R/S分析法)等方法,从气候变化和人类活动两个方面分析了流域径流的变化趋势及原因,重点探讨了冰川变化对河川径流的影响。结果表明:1950s-2015年,北大河流域整体上呈现增温增湿的变化趋势,其中升温趋势显著,而降水增加不明显。气候变化在山区和平原区特点不同,山区增温增湿的幅度明显高于平原区。气温和降水年际变化序列都具有持续性,未来气温将持续快速上升,降水将微弱增加。径流的年际变化呈现不显著的减少趋势,减少率为0. 11×10~8m^3/10a,且未出现明显的突变点。流域内人类活动对径流的影响极小,气候变化是引起径流变化的主要原因。在1980s-1990s,山区降水的阶段性减少以及冰川处于相对稳定状态造成河流径流的持续减少,并在1990s后期达到最少;2000年以来,持续增温造成冰川融水急剧增加成为近期径流增加的主要原因,气候转型引起的降水增加也在一定程度上加剧径流增加。Based on the hydro-meteorological data,combined with the methods of trend analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,and Hurst index,the runoff change was analyzed under climate change and human activities,and the influence of glacier change was also discussed.The results indicated that the climate was changed to warming and wetting during 1950 s-2015.The temperature increased significantly,but the precipitation increased slightly.It was different for climate change between the mountains and plains.The increase of temperature and precipitation in mountains were obviously more than these in plains.In the future,the temperature will continue to rise rapidly,and precipitation will increase lightly.The annual runoff series showed a slightly decreasing trend with no obvious mutation point,at a rate of 0.11×10^8 m^3/10 a.The impact of human activities on runoff change was minimal,and climate change was the main causes.From 1980 s to 1990 s,the periodic reduction of precipitation in mountain areas and the relatively stable state of glaciers caused continuous reduction of runoff,which reached the minimum in the late 1990 s;After 2000 s,the runoff increased significantly,the rapid increase of glacier meltwater caused by ongoing warming was the main reason,the increase in precipitation caused by climate transition also led to an increase in runoff.

关 键 词：出山径流 气候变化 人类活动 冰川变化 北大河流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]