中国煤炭消费与经济增长的解耦关系分析  

Analysis of the Decoupling Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：张磊[1] 李倩琪 ZHANG Lei;LI Qianqi(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第4期53-57,76,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"市场化下的电力来源结构与输配方案优化研究:基于省际层面的视角"(71874187);国家自然科学基金项目"市场化情境下的动力煤贸易空间均衡模型及仿真研究"(71373261)

摘　　要：文章运用LMDI分解法对1994—2015年中国40个行业的煤炭消耗与经济增长间的解耦关系进行了分析。结果发现:在研究期间,达到强解耦状态的产业有12个,2个产业处于无解耦关系,26个产业处于弱解耦状态;高耗能产业的产能退出是煤炭消耗减少的重要因素,煤炭效率的提高是抑制煤炭消费的主要因素,产业结构的变动还没有完全发挥作用。根据分析结果,从产业结构、煤炭利用效率、可再生能源等层面出发,为我国节能规划和解耦政策的制定提供若干建议。This paper studied the decoupling analysis for relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in 40 industries of China from 1994 to 2015 based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. The results show:(1) During this period, the decoupling of 12 industries is strong, 2 industries is undecoupled and 26 industries is weak.(2) The capacity withdrawal of highenergy-consuming industries is an important factor to reduce coal consumption. The improvement of coal efficiency is a main measure to curb industrial coal consumption, while the change of industrial structure has not worked fully. Some suggestions for China’s energy-saving planning and decoupling policy could be given from industrial structure, coal efficiency and renewable energy.

关 键 词：解耦 煤炭消耗 经济增长 产业 

分 类 号：F407[经济管理—产业经济]