从国际收支的变化和国际比较理解中国经济增长模式  

Understanding China's Economic Growth Model from the Change of International Balance of Payment and International Comparison

作　　者：陈卫东[1] 梁婧[1] 范若滢 Chen Weidong;Liang Jing;Fan Ruoying

机构地区：[1]中国银行国际金融研究所 [2]中国银行博士后科研工作站 [3]中国人民大学博士后科研流动站

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2019年第3期13-23,共11页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：在当前内外部新形势下,特别是外部环境日益复杂的背景下,需要重新反思国际收支格局变化与经济增长的关系,更全面、客观地为未来中国政策选择提供参考。本文从国际收支角度,对比分析了全球主要发达国家和发展中国家国际收支结构,并着重分析了国际收支结构及变化与经济增长的关系,同时从中国的国际收支结构理解和分析中国经济增长模式,判断中国国际收支格局演变趋势。从国际收支与经济增长的关系看,经常项目中贸易顺差是一国储蓄投资状况、产业竞争力的重要体现。金融账户中外商直接投资是发展中国家经济起飞和稳定发展的重要手段,与证券、贷款等其他方式相比更有利于经济的稳定和可持续发展。近年来,我国的国际收支结构已出现新变化,由长期经常账户与非储备性质的金融账户"双顺差"向更为均衡的方向收敛,且这种国际收支新格局将大概率延续。Considering the new internal and external situation, especially in the context of increasingly complex external environment, we need to rethink the relationship between the change of international balance of payment pattern and economic growth to provide a more comprehensive and objective reference for future policy choices. From the perspective of balance of payments, this paper analyzes the balance of payments structure of major developed countries and developing countries, and analyzes the relationship between the change of balance of payments structure and economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the understanding China's balance of payments structure and analysis of China's economic growth model, this paper determines the evolution of China's balance of payments pattern. From the perspective of the relationship between international payments and economic growth, the trade surplus in the current account is an important manifestation of a country, savings investment status and industrial competitiveness. Foreign direct investment in financial accounts is an. important measure for the economic take-off and stable development of developing countries, it is more conducive to economic stability and sustainable develop-ment than other methods such as securities and loans. In recent years, China's balance of payments structure has undergone new changes, from a long-term “double surplus” to a more balanced direction, and this new pattern of balance of payments will continue with great probability.

关 键 词：国际收支 经济增长模式 双顺差 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F124