关于中美贸易不平衡问题研究——基于涉华负面新闻角度  

Research on Imbalance in Sino-US Trade—Based on the Perspective of China-related Negative News

作　　者：孟丽君[1] 李钢[2] MENG Li-jun;LI Gang(Graduate School Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028;Institute of Industrial Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京100028 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100044

出　　处：《价格月刊》2019年第3期63-70,共8页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"企业动态视角下我国内需变动影响出口的机制及政策应对研究"(编号:71573271)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：中美关系一直是两国乃至全世界关注的焦点,美国媒体情绪会反映出美国政府、社会和人民对中美两国经贸关系的立场。基于1990年1月～2017年12月美国境内涉华负面新闻数据以及中美双边贸易数据,检验了两者之间的因果关系。研究发现,中美贸易顺差冲击(TDS)在美国发生的2到3个月后,美国境内涉华负面新闻指数值急剧上升,并在第三个月时达到最高值,随后开始逐渐下降。这一结果表明,美国境内涉华负面新闻飙升现象的出现,可能是中美双边贸易波动的内生因素。Sino-US relations have always been the focus between the two countries and world concern as well,but the US media emotion reflected the standpoint of US governmental,social and people on Sino-US economic and trade relations.Based on the China-related negative news data in America and Sino-US bilateral trade data from 1990.1 to 2017.12,this paper examines the causality between the two issues.The results reveal that after two to three months of TDS in America,the number of China-related negative news in America sharply increased,and it has reached up to the maximum till the third month and then gradually decreases.It reveals that the severe rising of China-related negative news in American might be the inner factor of Sino-US lateral trade fluctuation.

关 键 词：中美贸易顺差 涉华负面新闻 中美经贸关系 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]