祁连山保护区东端气象因子与灌木林死体可燃物含水率拟合模型构建  

The Fitting Model Construction of Meteorological Factors at the Eastern end of the Qilian Mountain Reserve and the Water Content of the Combustibles in the Shrubs

作　　者：蒋志仁 蒋志成 李贵琴 廖空太 冯金元 王军梅 JIANG Zhiren;JIANG Zhicheng;LI Guiqin

机构地区：[1]甘肃祁连山国家级自然保护区祁连自然保护站,甘肃天祝734000 [2]甘肃祁连山国家级自然保护区管理局 [3]甘肃祁连山国家级自然保护区夏玛自然保护站 [4]甘肃祁连山国家级自然保护区乌鞘岭自然保护站

出　　处：《林业科技通讯》2019年第3期12-15,共4页Forest Science and Technology

摘　　要：分析了祁连山保护区东端气象因子与灌木林死体可燃物含水率的关系,结果表明,祁连山保护区东端灌木林死体可燃物含水率与降水量、温度、相对湿度、连续干旱天数、风速和蒸发量6个气象因子显著相关,显著性水平为0.05。以灌木林死体可燃物含水率为应变量,降水量、温度、相对湿度、连续干旱天数、风速和蒸发量为自变量,建立了拟合模型。经检测,模型估算值与实测结果误差较小,可为祁连山保护区东端灌木林火灾预测预防提供较为准确的数据。The relationship between the meteorological factors at the eastern end of the Qilian Mountain Reserve and the water content of the combustibles in the shrubs was analyzed. The results showed that the water content of combustibles in the shrubs in the eastern end of Qilian Mountain Reserve was significantly correlated with precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, continuous dry days, wind speed and evaporation. The significance level was 0.05. The fitting model was established by using the water content of the combustibles in the shrubs as the dependent variable, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, continuous dry days, wind speed and evaporation as independent variables. After testing, the error between the model estimation and the measured results is small, which can provide more accurate data for the prediction and prevention of shrub fire in the eastern end of Qilian Mountain Reserve.

关 键 词：祁连山保护区 气象因子 可燃物 灌木 拟合模型 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]