风电场风速概率Weibull分布的参数估计研究  

Estimation Algorithm on the Weibull Probabilistic Distribution Parameters of Wind Speed in Wind Farms

作　　者：杨富程[1] 韩二红 王彬滨 刘海坤 黄博文 YANG Fucheng;HAN Erhong;WANG Binbin;LIU Haikun;HUANG Bowen(Sichuan Electric Power Design & Consulting Co.,Ltd,610041,Chengdu,PRC)

机构地区：[1]四川电力设计咨询有限责任公司,成都610041

出　　处：《江西科学》2019年第2期264-269,299,共7页Jiangxi Science

摘　　要：风电场风速概率分布是描述风能特征的主要指标,其准确程度直接影响风电场风能资源的评估结果。主要介绍了两参数威布尔分布的极大似然估计法、最小二乘估计法和WASP估计法3种风速概率分布参数的估计方法。通过对四川广元地区低风速区域测风塔实测数据分析,结果表明,极大似然估计法与实测数据统计结果最为接近,拟合效果良好;Weibull参数c、k存在相对较为明显的季节变化;尺度参数c值随高度呈现幂指数形式,形状参数k值随高度呈现二次函数形式变化特征,在80～90 m高度左右,曲线出现拐点,k值取得最大值。The probability distribution of wind speed is the main index to describe the characteristics of wind energy, and its accuracy directly affects the evaluation results of wind energy resources in wind farmers. In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimation method, least squares estimation method and the WASP method for estimating the wind speed probability distribution parameters of two-parameter Weibull distribution are introduced. Through the analysis of the measured data of the wind tower in the low wind speed area in Guangyuan area of Sichuan, the results show that the maximum likelihood estimation method and the measured data are the closest, and the fitting effect is good;the Weibull parameters c and k have relatively obvious seasonal changes;The shape parameter value exhibits a power exponential form with height, and the k value exhibits a quadratic function form variation characteristic with height which has an inflection point and gets the maximum value around the 80~90 meters.

关 键 词：WEIBULL分布 概率分布 形状参数 尺度参数 参数估计 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]