基础设施投资、财政支出分权与最优地方政府债务规模  

Infrastructure Investment,Fiscal Expenditure Decentralization,and Optimum Local Government Debt Scale

作　　者：闫先东[1] 廖为鼎 Yan Xiandong;Liao Weiding

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行调查统计司 [2]中国人民银行广州分行

出　　处：《财政研究》2019年第2期44-58,共15页Public Finance Research

摘　　要：本文基于一个包含中央政府、地方政府、家庭及企业四部门,具有内生增长机制的世代交叠模型,讨论了政府举债为基础设施投资进行融资时经济的长期均衡条件。同时,我们对1996-2016年我国分省的非基础设施行业、中央政府和地方政府投资的基础设施行业资本存量规模进行了估算,通过面板计量模型估计了各类资本存量的产出弹性,并运用数值模拟方法讨论了我国地方政府债务规模占GDP比重的最优区间水平。研究结果表明,综合考虑隐性债务因素,当前地方政府债务规模可能已经超出最优区间[25.4%,47.7%]的上限,导致该结果的重要原因是由于基础设施支出中地方政府承担的比重过高。Based on an overlapping generation model with endogenous growth mechanism, covering four sectors such as central government, local governments, households and enterprises, this paper studies the longterm equilibrium of the economy in which government borrows finance for infrastructure investment. Then,it estimates China’s capital stocks of non-infrastructure and infrastructure invested by central government and local governments at provincial level over 1996-2016, and estimates output elasticity of each category of capital by using panel data econometric model, further discusses the optimum interval of local government debts against GDP ratio through numerical simulation method. It draws a conclusion that taking the implicit debts into consideration, currently the local government debt scale may exceed the upper limit of optimum interval between25.4%-47.7%, which is mainly caused by the high proportion of local government infrastructure investment expenditure.

关 键 词：基础设施投资 财政分权 地方政府债务 资本存量 资本产出弹性 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]