农户贫困陷阱假说在中国的检验:来自面板门槛模型的新证据  

A Test of Peasant Household Poverty Trap Hypothesis in China:New Evidence From Panel Threshold Model

作　　者：袁航[1] 时卫平[1] 刘景景 Yuan Hang;Shi Weiping;Liu Jingjing(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Research Center for Rural Economy,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100810,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [2]农业农村部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第6期86-90,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673289;71673288);中国人民大学2016年度拔尖创新人才培养资助计划成果

摘　　要：贫困陷阱假说是西方发展经济学中的经典假说,对当下精准扶贫策略选择,扶贫资金使用效率提升具有十分重要的参考价值,但是贫困陷阱假说是否成立却具有一定争议。文章基于面板门槛模型实证检验贫困陷阱假说在中国是否成立,进而回答上述争议。结果表明:(1)贫困陷阱假说在中国健康营养调查(CHNS)数据集中得不到印证;(2)纯物质扶持不足以帮助贫困农户形成收入持续增长的内生机制,进而彻底摆脱贫困。因此,不建议对建档立卡贫困户采取纯物质扶持。应该将扶智、扶志、社保精准兜底与纯物质扶贫相结合形成更加精密的帮扶措施,帮助贫困农户形成收入增长新动能,进而彻底摆脱贫困。The poverty trap hypothesis is a classic hypothesis in western development economics, which is of great reference value for the selection of accurate poverty alleviation strategy and the improvement of efficiency in using poverty alleviation funds,but the poverty trap hypothesis is controversial. Based on panel threshold model, this paper empirically tests whether the poverty trap hypothesis is valid in China, and then answers the above disputes. The results are shown as follows:(1) Poverty trap hypothesis cannot be confirmed in the(CHNS) data set of China Health Nutrition Survey.(2) Pure material support is not enough to help the poor farmers form the endogenous mechanism of sustained income growth and thus completely get rid of poverty. Therefore, it is not recommended to adopt pure material support for poor households. Instead, we should help to develop more sophisticated support measures by combining wisdom support, will support, social security precise bottom line and pure material poverty alleviation, so as to help poor rural households create new drivers of income growth to lift them out of poverty.

关 键 词：贫困陷阱假说 门槛模型 CHNS 精准扶贫 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]