基于WASP模型的河流水质模拟及模糊风险评价  

Numerical Simulation and Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Water Quality for Rivers based on WASP Model

作　　者：程铭 孙强[2] CHENG Ming;SUN Qiang(China Construction Second Engineering Bureau CO.,LTD.,Beijing Branch,Beijing 100160;School of Civil Engineering,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040)

机构地区：[1]中国建筑第二工程局有限公司北京分公司,北京100160 [2]东北林业大学土木工程学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《森林工程》2019年第3期87-92,共6页Forest Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助基金(2572018BJ14)

摘　　要：为了对河流流域内水质风险进行高效且直观地评价,本文首先建立某河流流域的WASP水质模型,以碳化生化需氧量(CBOD)和氨氮(NH3-N)为水质指标,对比分析数值计算结果与河流监测断面的实测结果,验证所建立的WASP水质模型的准确性,并依据所建立的水质模型的计算结果,运用模糊数学理论,对该河流流域内水质风险进行模糊评价。结果表明,所建立的WASP水质模型的数值计算结果与实测值吻合较好,能够较准确地模拟河流中污染物输移扩散规律,通过对该河流流域进行水质模糊风险评价,可对河流水质受不确定性因素影响的安全风险程度进行定量化分析。因此,WASP水质模型结合模糊风险评价模型可实现对河流水质所存在的风险程度进行高效地预测和评价,为该河流流域的进一步污染治理奠定理论基础。To evaluate the water quality risk of river regions effectively and intuitively, this paper firstly develops a water quality model using WASP model for a specified river region. Moreover, the numerical results, including the water quality indexes of both carbonized biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3-N), are compared with the corresponding measured ones to validate the accuracy of the WASP model. Then, based on the calculation results of the water quality model, fuzzy mathematics theory is employed to estimate the fuzzy risk of water quality of the river. The results show that the numerical results are in good agreement with the corresponding measured ones. The WASP model is able to simulate transport and diffusion of the pollutants in the rivers accurately. Through evaluating the fuzzy risk of water quality, it could analyze the water quality safety risk level of the river affected by various uncertain factors numerically. Therefore, WASP water quality model combined with fuzzy risk assessment model can effectively predict and evaluate the risk degree of river water quality. It would be the theoretical foundation to the further pollutant treatments of the river regions.

关 键 词：WASP模型 河流水质 数值模拟 模糊风险评价 

分 类 号：U616[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] X522[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]