水系连通变异下荆南三口河系水文干旱识别与特征分析  

Identification of hydrologic drought characteristics under water system connectivity variation in river system of three outlets of Jingjiang river

作　　者：代稳[1,2] 吕殿青 李景保[1] 王金凤[2] 赵增友 DAI Wen;LU Dianqing;LI Jingbao;WANG Jinfeng;ZHAO Zengyou(College of Resources and Environment Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;School of Tourism and History and Culture,Liupanshui Normal University,Liupanshui 553004,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,长沙410081 [2]六盘水师范学院旅游与历史文化学院,贵州六盘水553004

出　　处：《地理学报》2019年第3期557-571,共15页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41571100);湖南省重点学科建设项目(2011001)~~

摘　　要：为揭示水系连通变异下荆南三口河系水文干旱演变特征,运用荆南三口河系五站1956-2016年的月径流量数据,采用游程理论识别该河系水文干旱特征变量,并运用KolmogorowSmirnov优度检验法选出干旱历时、干旱强度和峰值的概率分布函数,构建出水文干旱特征联合分布Copula函数,对水系连通变异下该河系水文干旱特征进行深入研究。结果表明:①1989年为荆南三口河系(1956-2016年)水系连通变异分割点;②该河系连通性变异前后水文干旱特征均发生显著变化,水文干旱事件发生的次数增多,干旱历时增长,干旱强度增大,峰值增高;③各站点的相同单变量重现期下二维联合重现期在水系连通变异前基本上均比水系连通变异后长,二维同现重现期在水系连通变异前均比水系连通变异后短;④水系连通变异后,该河系水文干旱历时、干旱强度和峰值呈现增加趋势,且在相同单变量重现期的情况下,干旱历时更长,干旱强度更大,峰值更高;⑤水系连通变异后水文干旱特征的变化幅度与变异前存在差异,不同河系其水文干旱特征的变化幅度不同。Based on the monthly runoff data of five stations in three outlets of Jingjiang river from 1956 to 2016,hydrologic drought characteristic variables were identified by run length theory.The probability distribution functions of drought duration,drought intensity and peak value were selected by Kolmogorow-Smirnov’s goodness test.A Copulas function was constructed to deeply study the river hydrologic drought characteristics after the river connectivity variation in this region.The results showed that:(1)The year 1989 was the break point of the river system connectivity in three outlets of Jingjiang river(1956-2016).(2)The hydrologic drought characteristics changed significantly before and after river system connectivity break point.The frequency,duration,intensity and peak value of hydrologic drought increased.(3)The two-dimensional joint recurrence periods under the same single variable recurrence period in the pre-variation era in each site were much longer than those in the post-variation era but the two-dimensional co-occurrences return periods of pre-variation were shorter than those of post-variation.(4)The hydrologic drought duration,drought intensity and peak value in river system of the three outlets in Jingjiang river showed an increasing trend after river system connectivity variation.Under the same single variable recurrence period,the drought duration was longer,the drought intensity was greater and the peak value was higher.(5)The magnitude of hydrologic drought characteristics was different before and after variation of river system connectivity,and the variation ranges of hydrologic drought characteristics were different in different river systems.

关 键 词：水文干旱 干旱特征 ARCHIMEDEAN Copulas函数 水系连通变异 荆南三口河系 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]