电站锅炉制造项目变更风险综合评价研究  

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of Utility Boiler Manufacturing Project Change

作　　者：刘甲蒙 沈跃忠[1] LIU Jiameng;SHEN Yuezhong(Shanghai Boiler Works Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200245, China)

机构地区：[1]上海锅炉厂有限公司,上海200245

出　　处：《锅炉技术》2019年第2期71-75,共5页Boiler Technology

摘　　要：通过电站锅炉制造、项目特点和进行变更风险评价的必要性等主要背景情况的介绍,对进行项目变更风险评价应用的理论和方法,分别应用质量功能展开方法建立风险评价指标,应用层次分析法计算评价指标权重系数,得出应用模糊风险综合评价法对某电站锅炉制造项目进行变更风险综合评价。所得到的评价结果经清晰化处理能够转化为量化值,使电站锅炉制造项目变更风险评价指标的变更倾向性程度的评价结果非常直观与准确,对项目管理过程中针对性采取变更预防措施和对具体项目的变更倾向性风险评价具有实际操作的指导意义。Firstly, this paper introduces the main background of utility boiler manufacturing project, project characteristics and the necessity of risk evaluation of project change, then introduces the theory and method of risk evaluation of project change, and then establishes the risk evaluation index with the method of quality function deployment, and calculates the weight of risk evaluation index with the method of analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the fuzzy risk comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of a utility boiler manufacturing project. The evaluation results can be transformed into quantitative values after clarification, which makes the evaluation results of the change tendency degree of the risk evaluation index of the utility boiler manufacturing project very intuitive and accurate. It has practical guiding significance.

关 键 词：电站锅炉 项目变更 风险评价 模糊风险综合评价法 

分 类 号：TK226[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]