基于系统动力学的风力机备件需求预测研究  

RESEARCH ON DEMAND FORECAST OF SPARE PARTS OF WIND TURBINE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

作　　者：胡迪 高庆水 张楚 杨涛[1] 高伟[1] 邓小文 Hu Di;Gao Qingshui;Zhang Chu;Yang Tao;Gao Wei;Deng Xiaowen(School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;Electric Pou er Research Institute of Guangdong Pou er Grid Corporation ,Guangzhou 510080, China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院,武汉430074 [2]广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,广州510080

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2019年第3期666-672,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2015BAA06B02)

摘　　要：考虑到服役时间、备件寿命、维修策略及环境4种因素对备件需求发生的影响,利用系统动力学建立风力机备件需求预测模型。模型主要由服役时间仿真模块、备件可靠度和故障率仿真模块及维修方式仿真模块组成。仿真结果表明:该模型能体现出风力机备件需求的特点,同时在边界条件内预测需求发生时刻,为备件管理者提供备货信息。Considering the influence of service time,spare parts life,maintenance strategy and environment on the demand of spare parts,the System Dynamic model is used to establish the forecast model of spare parts demand of the wind turbine. The model consists of service time simulation module,spare parts reliability and failure rate simulation module, maintenance mode simulation module. The simulation results showed that the model can reflect the characteristics of the demand of the spare parts of the wind turbine and forecast the time of occurrence of the demand in the boundary condition,and provide the stocking information for the spare parts manager.

关 键 词：风力机 备件 需求预测 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TK83[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]