从“投资拉动”到“创新驱动”:经济增长方式转变的内生动力和转型冲击  

From Investment-driven to Innovation-driven: the Endogenous Driving Force and Transition Shock of Economic Growth Transformation

作　　者：申萌[1] 万海远[2,3] 李凯杰 Shen Meng;Wan Haiyuan;Li Kaijie

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院 [3]中国收入分配研究院 [4]河南财经政法大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2019年第3期17-31,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"节能减排实现供给侧就业结构化的理论机制与路径研究"(17BJL011);国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国家庭数据库建设及其应用研究"(18ZDA080);北京师范大学"收入分配与劳动力市场"学科交叉项目(312231104);北京市中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心重点项目(17SRAL001)的资助

摘　　要：本文将新古典模型和内生增长模型归置于不同发展阶段,建立了从"投资拉动"到"创新驱动"的复合增长模型。在经济转型过程中,资本向新兴创新行业转移,产品创新也加深了市场垄断程度,由此带来了"转型冲击",而本文数值模拟的结果显示,转型后的经济增速会出现短期负面冲击,在长期则显示持续的反弹。本文采用国际投入产出数据发现,我国目前投资拉动的现象比较明显,经济整体上还未进入创新驱动阶段;基于动态面板模型和面板向量自回归模型发现,创新引致了我国产出增长率的短期下滑,但长期则有利于持续提升,从而验证了理论模型。This paper constructs compound economic growth models driven by investment to innovation in different development stages placed with neoclassical and endogenous growth models. In the economic transition process, the capital shifts to emerging and innovative industries and the innovation of products intensifies the market monopoly, inducing a "transition shock". However, a numerical simulation shows that the post-transition economic growth will produce a short-term negative shock and a long-term sustaining rally. Using the data on China’s sub-industry provided by WIOD, it is found that China’s economy obviously driven by investment has not entered into the innovation-driven stage yet on a whole. Based on the dynamic panel data and panel vector auto-regression models, the results show that the innovation in China leads to a short-term decline in output growth rate, but it is positive to the escalation of long-term expansion, which corroborates these theoretical models.

关 键 词：资本积累 创新驱动 经济转型 转型冲击 复合增长模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]