1970—2018年拉萨市气温与ENSO事件的关联性分析  

Analysis on correlation between temperature and ENSO events from 1970 to 2018 in Lhasa

作　　者：赵剑波[1,2] 尚继涛 ZHAO Jian-bo;SHANG Ji-tao(School of Science,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China;School of Resource and Environmental Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学理学院,西藏拉萨850000 [2]武汉大学资源与环境学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2019年第1期27-34,共8页Plateau Science Research

摘　　要：文章利用1970—2018年拉萨市气温数据和ENSO事件数据,采用灰色绝对关联度对拉萨市的平均气温、极端最高温度、极端最低温度以及厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件的长度、峰值时间、峰值强度等进行了关联性分析。结果表明:①1970—2018年拉萨市气温与ENSO事件中的暖事件关联性强,尤其是与暖事件的长度和峰值强度具有极强的关联性;②1970—2018年拉萨市气温与ENSO事件中的冷事件具有关联性,但其只与冷事件的长度有较强关联性,与冷事件的峰值强度和峰值时间关联性弱或不具有关联性。③拉萨市乃至整个青藏高原内部的温度变化与ENSO事件中的暖事件有强关联性。The correlation between absolute temperature,extreme maximum temperature,extreme minimum temperature of Lhasa and the length,peak time,peak intensity of the El Nino/La Nina events was analyzed by using Grey Absolute Incidence Degree based on temperature data of Lhasa and the ENSO events data for last 50 years(from year 1970 to 2018).The results showed that①the temperature in Lhasa in the last 50 years was strongly associated with the warm events in the ENSO events,especially with the length and peak intensity of the warm events,②the temperature of Lhasa in the last 50 years was correlated with the cold events in the ENSO events,especially it was strongly correlated with the length of the cold events,but there was little or no correlation between the temperature of Lhasa and the peak intensity and peak time of the cold events,③it can also be concluded that the changes in temperature of Lhasa and even the entire Oinghai-Tibet Plateau was strongly correlated with the warm events in the ENSO events.

关 键 词：拉萨市 气温 ENSO事件 关联性分析 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]