中国粮食产能变化与耕地保护策略研究——基于作物区试产量视角  

RESEARCH ON CROP PRODUCTION CAPACITY CHANGE AND CULTIVATED LAND PROTECTION STRATEGY——BASED ON REGIONAL CROP YIELD

作　　者：郑亚楠 张凤荣 谢臻 张天柱 李超 王秀丽[3] Zheng Ya′nan;Zhang Fengrong;Xie Zhen;Zhang Tianzhu;Li Chao;Wang Xiuli(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100193,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou,Henan 450002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100193 [2]自然资源部农用地质量与监控重点实验室,北京100193 [3]河南农业大学资源与环境学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2019年第4期47-53,共7页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：土地利用系数调查测算方案研究(29018219);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目阶段性成果(2015BJJ058)

摘　　要：[目的]通过分析粮食作物新品种的区试产量变化和耕地面积变化,研究保证国家粮食安全的策略。[方法]文章以105个农业生态小区为研究单元,以粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础,量化对比分析2004年和2016年各农业生态小区的粮食单产,核算2004年和2016年全国耕地粮食总生产能力。[结果](1)相比2004年,2016年全国粮食作物单产能力平均提高4. 96%。(2) 2004年和2016年全国平均耕地粮食单产能力实现率分别为49. 18%和52. 31%。(3) 2004年和2016年的全国耕地粮食总生产能力为10. 70亿t和9. 59亿t,呈下降趋势。(4) 2004—2016年,耕地面积变化对粮食生产能力的影响大于粮食单产能力变化。[结论]依靠农业科技进步提高了粮食单产,但粮食单产提升不足以弥补耕地面积减少对粮食总产的影响。因此,为了保障国家粮食安全,不能单纯依靠单产提升,必须同步推进藏粮于技和藏粮于地战略。The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes of regional yields and changes in cultivated land area of new varieties of food crops,and to research on the strategies for ensuring national food security.This study took 105 agricultural ecological communities as the research unit.Based on the regional test yields of approved varieties of food crops,it quantified and analyzed the grain yield per unit of various agricultural ecological communities in 2004 and 2016,and calculated the total grain production of cultivated land in 2004 and 2016.The results showed that(1)Compared with 2004,the average national food crop yield per unit of grain crops increased by 4.96%in 2016.(2)The average grain yield per unit of production in 2004 and 2016 was 49.18%and 52.31%,respectively.(3)In 2004,the total grain production capacity in China was 1.07 billion tons and 959 million tons,showing a declining trend.(4)From 2004 to 2016,the change in cultivated land area had a greater impact on grain production capacity than the change in grain yield capacity.It is concluded that relying on the advancement of agricultural science and technology,the yield per unit of grain has been increased,but the increase in yield per unit is not sufficient to make up for the impact of the decrease in the amount of cultivated land on the total grain yield.Therefore,in order to ensure national food security,it is not possible to simply rely on the increase in yields,and it is imperative to promote the strategy of collecting grain for technology and collecting grain in the cultivated land.

关 键 词：耕地保护 区试产量 粮食生产能力 粮食安全 农业生态区 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]