城市建设用地指标的配置逻辑及其对住房市场的影响  

The Impact of Urban Land Quota Allocation on China's Housing Market

作　　者：余吉祥 沈坤荣[2] YU Jixiang;SHEN Kunrong(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Normal University;Business School,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学经济管理学院 [2]南京大学商学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第4期116-132,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA023);安徽社会科学规划一般项目(AHSKY2016D41);安徽师范大学人才专项(2018XJJ07)的资助

摘　　要：本文致力于构建一个快速城市化和工业化进程中的城市建设用地供给理论,并基于这一理论框架讨论中国"人口、土地和住房"的空间错配机制及其后果。制度背景分析表明:中国城市建设用地供给受制于从中央到地方的指标分配,依次包括了"总量指标的地区配给"和"区县指标的用途配置"两个阶段,住房市场因此受到多级政府指标配置行为的叠加影响。理论模型揭示了财政激励下区县政府对指标的用途配置逻辑以及城市化激励下省级政府对指标的地区配置逻辑。基于实证研究结果,房地产市场上上演的"中国故事"可概述为:逆人口集聚方向的城市建设用地指标地区配给模式,叠加偏向工业的用途配置模式,对居住用地供给和住房市场产生了显著的挤压效应,导致"人口、土地和住房"的空间错配。Over the past two decades, China has witnessed a continuous rise in housing prices alongside rapid urbanization, especially in large cities in coastal areas. With the rapid growth in housing costs, the speed of urbanization in China has begun to decline in recent years. Many scholars believe that the boom in housing demand is the main reason for the soaring housing prices. However, the cost of land accounts for a large proportion of house prices, so urban land supply also plays an important role. In this paper, we focus on the effect of China s urban land supply on the housing market. Unlike most countries in the world, China uses a quota system to control its urban land supply to protect cultivated land. The operation of the system can be described as a process of quota allocation, with land distributed to regions by central and provincial governments and then allocated further for different purposes by local governments. First, the central government sets up a total quota of urban land supply every year and allocates land to each province. With the help of its agents, the provincial governments, land is eventually distributed to each county through the process of regional allocation. Second, county governments, which hold the power of purpose allocation, set up industrial land quotas, residential land quotas, infrastructure land quotas and land quotas for public management and service purposes. We construct a theoretical model to investigate an incentive mechanism that prompts provincial governments to distribute land to counties and encourages county governments to allocate land for different purposes. Because urban land supply is vital for economic development, fiscal income growth and urbanization, we hypothesize that a financial incentive and an urbanization incentive play important roles. Our model reveals that county governments expand industrial land at the expense of residential land when the financial incentive dominates. However, the land allocated to counties by provincial governments depends both on

关 键 词：建设用地供给 资源配置 住房市场 财政激励 城市化 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]