塔吊使用阶段安全风险分析与贝叶斯建模  

Analysis and Bayesian Modeling of Tower Crane Safety Risk during the Use Phase

作　　者：赵挺生[1] 周炜[1] 徐凯 贺凌云 ZHAO Ting-sheng;ZHOU Wei;XU Kai;HE Ling-yun(School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2019年第11期350-356,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0805500)资助

摘　　要：塔吊使用阶段的施工安全生产事故多发,研究塔吊使用阶段的安全致险机理及安全风险评价具有重要意义。通过分析塔吊使用阶段的事故特征和安全致险机理,识别了安全影响因素、关键事件、事故等事故场景要素;梳理了要素间的因果关系。在此基础上,引入贝叶斯建模方法构建塔吊使用阶段的安全风险评价模型,确定了网络拓扑结构和条件概率表;采用模糊数学方法获取根节点的先验概率,实现了塔吊使用阶段安全风险的量化评价。最后,通过敏感性分析识别了塔吊使用阶段的四个关键安全影响因素。Construction safety production accidents occur frequently during the use phase of tower cranes. Studying the safety risk mechanism and safety risk assessment of the tower crane use phase is of great significance. By analyzing accident characteristics and risk mechanism of the tower crane use phase, the accident scene elements were identified, including safety influencing factors, key events and accidents, and the causal relationship between the elements was sorted out. On this basis, the Bayesian modeling method was introduced to construct the safety risk assessment model for the tower crane use phase. The network topology and the conditional probability table were determined, and the fuzzy mathematics method was used to determine the prior probability of the root node, which realizes the quantitative evaluation of the tower crane safety risk during the use phase. Finally, four key safety influencing factors of the tower crane use phase were identified through sensitivity analysis.

关 键 词：塔吊 使用阶段 安全风险 贝叶斯信念网络 风险评价 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]