基于GIS的河北省核桃花期冻害风险评估与区划  

Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Walnut Flowering Period Freezing Injury Based on GIS in Hebei Province

作　　者：李迪 张巧玉 孙东磊 朱琛 刘超[3] LI Di;ZHANG Qiao-yu;SUN Dong-lei;ZHU Chen;LIU Chao(Xingtai Meteorological Disaster Preparedness Centre,Meteorological Bureau of Xingtai,Xingtai 054000,China;College of Resources and Environment/Xingtai University,Xingtai 054000,China;College of Resources and Environment/China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]邢台市气象局气象灾害防御中心,河北邢台054000 [2]邢台学院资源与环境学院,河北邢台054000 [3]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第2期191-196,共6页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：河北省气象局科研计划项目:太行山南部核桃农业气象灾害监测与评估(13ky32);邢台市科技计划项目(2016ZC155)

摘　　要：核桃花期冻害是核桃生长中影响座果最主要的因素。利用自然灾害风险理论的评估手段,结合GIS技术,对河北省核桃花期冻害风险进行评估与区划,是减少核桃花期冻害对其产量造成损失的有效手段。本文采用河北省32个核桃主要种植县的国家一般气象站的气象资料、核桃种植的基础信息和地理信息数据。从"致灾因子的危险性"、"孕灾环境的敏感性"、"承载体的易损性"和"防灾减灾能力"4个方面进行综合分析和评估,建立冻害综合风险指数,创建核桃花期冻害风险评估模型,并依此为依据进行河北省核桃花期冻害风险区划。Freezing Risk at walnut flowering phase is the principal factor to reduce the fruit setting.Using the theory of natural disaster risk assessment method combined with GIS technology is an effective measure to reduce the huge losses of walnut production affected by freezing in flowering phase.Based on the national meteorological observing station from 32 counties planting walnut in Hebei Province,the agricultural information of walnut and geographic information data,this paper analyzed and evaluated the risk of hazard-formative factors,the environmental sensitivity of gestating disaster,the vulnerability of hazard-affected body as well as the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.The comprehensive risk index of freezing injury and the risk assessment model for freezing injury of walnut in flowering period were established,based on this,the freezing injury risk zonation in Hebei Province was carried out.

关 键 词：核桃花期 冻害 风险区划 GIS技术 河北省 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]