官方媒体参与下不同风险感知群体竞争模型及其演化规律  

A competition model and its evolution law of groups with different risk perception under the participation of official media

作　　者：王治莹[1] 杨学亮 梁敬 WANG Zhiying;YANG Xueliang;LIANG Jing(School of Management Science & Engineering, Anhui University of Technology, Ma’anshan Anhui 243032, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2019年第4期19-24,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71704001;71601002;71572125);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1808085QG224; 1708085MG168);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2018D13)

摘　　要：为识别公众风险感知的演化规律和官方媒体参与的作用机制,首先,根据公众的行为表现划分不同风险感知群体,并分析群体间的相互竞争和官方媒体的扰动作用;然后,通过扩展Lotka-Volterra模型建立群体间的相互竞争模型;在此基础上,通过推导模型平衡点及其稳定性分析模型演化规律;最后,运用数值仿真考查了官方媒体的参与对模型演化的影响。研究结果表明:模型演化具有3种结果情景,官方媒体参与能够显著改变模型演化的速度和结果。It is of great significance to identify the evolution law of public risk perception and the mechanism of participation of official media in order to maintain the response order and implementation of plans. Firstly,groups with different risk perception are divided according to public behavior,and the competition between different groups and the disturbance of official media are analyzed. Then,a mutual competition model is established through extending the Lotka-Volterra model between groups. Further,the model equilibrium point and its stability of are derived to analyze the evolution law of this model. Finally,numerical simulation is conducted to examine the effect of the participation of official media on the evolution of the proposed model evolution. The results show that there are three scenarios of evolution results of the model,and the participation of official media can significantly change evolution speed and result of the model.

关 键 词：突发事件 官方媒体 风险感知 演化规律 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] C912.6[经济管理]