宏观政策刺激经济增长的差异性研究  

Research on the Differences of Macroeconomic Policies Stimulating Economic Growth

作　　者：陈新娟[1] 袁持平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学新华学院 [2]中山大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第7期107-110,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC:11571374);第二批万人计划入选者省财政配套资金项目(青年拔尖)

摘　　要：改革开放四十年以来,中国经济在波动中逐渐成长,了解中国经济增长的特征与背后的动因,是促进未来经济平稳健康发展的重要基础。本文通过构建DSGE模型,利用中国数据对模型的参数采用极大似然估计法进行了估计,并采用ESS程序进行了参数稳定性检验。研究发现:引起中国宏观经济出现波动的主要外生冲击中,货币政策冲击对经济的推动只在短时间内有效且具有不稳定性;投资冲击以及需求偏好冲击对经济的推动持续性更长。本文以研究结论为现实指导,提出相关建议。Since the reform and opening up 40 years ago, China’s economy has experienced great growth, but also experienced a number of large fluctuations, understanding the characteristics of China’s economic growth and fluctuations and the causes behind, has become a current research hotspot. In this paper, the DSGE model is constructed, and the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of the model with Chinese data, and the ESS program is used to test the parameter stability. It is found that, among the main exogenous shocks of China’s macroeconomic fluctuations, the monetary policy shock can only promote the economy effectively in a short time, and it is unstable over time. The impact of investment and demand preferences on the economy has been sustained for a long time. Under the guide of research conclusion for reality, we put forward some relevant suggestions.

关 键 词：DSGE模型 经济增长 减税降费 货币政策 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]