PTA协定中服务自由化“深度”的测量及对贸易增长影响的实证  

Evaluation on the Depth of Service Trade Liberalization in PTAs and Its Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Trade Growth

作　　者：陈靓[1] Chen Liang

机构地区：[1]上海WTO事务咨询中心

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2019年第3期57-67,M0003,共12页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：随着全球价值链的深入发展,服务贸易的重要性与日俱增。现有WTO框架下的多边服务贸易规则(GATS)已无法适应全球价值链发展的需要,与此同时,包含服务贸易新规则的优惠贸易协定(PTA)开始大量涌现。文章结合国外研究方法,初步构建了一套专门衡量服务贸易协定深度的简易指数,对近年来较有代表性的PTA进行衡量。研究结果发现,PTA在"GATS+"和"GATS-X"议题上不仅提升了服务贸易相关条款的"表面深度",还通过增加有约束力的条款及时锁定现有成果,进一步提高了服务自由化的"实际深度"。在此基础上,文章重点从理论角度分析了服务自由化对全球服务贸易增长以及对具有全球价值链特征的制造业出口的影响路径,并构建引力模型进行了实证检验。研究结果显示,服务贸易的深度自由化不仅可以促进一国服务贸易的进口,对一国服务贸易的出口也发挥着更为重要的推动作用,并能够依托全球价值链进一步推动制成品贸易的增长。With the in-depth development of Global Value Chains( GVCs),the importance of trade in services is increasing. The existing multilateral service trade rules( GATS) under the WTO framework have been unable to adapt to the development needs of GVCs. At the same time,preferential trade agreement( PTA) containing new rules for trade in services have begun to emerge.Combining with foreign research methods,this paper initially constructs a set of simple index that measures the depth of service trade agreements. It measures the most representative PTAs in recent years and finds that PTAs not only increase the apparent depth of the provisions of service trade,but also further increase the real depth of service liberalization by adding binding terms and timely locking in existing results under both of GATS + and GATS-X issues. On this basis,this paper focuses on the theoretical perspective of the impact of service liberalization on the growth of global service trade and the export of manufacturing with GVCs characteristics,and builds a gravitational model based on historical data for empirical testing. The results show that the deep liberalization of trade in services can not only promote the services import of a country,but also play a more important role in promoting the services export of a country,and can further promote the growth of trade in manufactured goods based on GVCs.

关 键 词：服务贸易自由化 服务贸易限制性指数 引力模型 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F746.18[经济管理—国际贸易]