企业家信心与货币政策区域非对称效应——来自动态非线性面板模型的证据  

Regional Effect of Monetary Policy Implementation and Entrepreneurial Confidence——Evidence from a nonlinear dynamic panel model

作　　者：温博慧 郭娜 苟尚德 WEN Bo-hui;GUO Na;GOU Shang-de(School of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222,China;Hetao University, Inner Mongolia 015000, China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学金融学院,天津300222 [2]内蒙古河套学院,内蒙古巴彦淖尔015000

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2019年第4期15-32,共18页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(16YJAZH060);中国博士后科学基金资助项目第10批特别资助支持(2017T100154)

摘　　要：在中国经济增长动力切换和发展方式转变的关键时期,企业家信心影响至关重要。本文选取2010年1月到2018年3月我国东、中、西部地区24个省市数据作为研究样本,将企业家信心与区域特征结合,研究货币政策效果的区域非对称效应。研究采用动态非线性面板模型,以时空维度中方向非对称性、时间和空间非一致性三方面表现诠释货币政策区域非对称效应结果。检验结果表明:适度紧缩货币政策环境下产生的影响均小于适度扩张货币政策环境;中西部地区通常会因企业家信心反馈而放大货币政策对产出的收缩效应;而适度宽松货币政策环境下东部地区大于中西部地区的扩张效应,中西部地区会因企业家信心水平未突破门限而不足以响应并扩大产出效应;价格型货币政策调控工具在企业家信心影响下的影响效力更高。The impact of entrepreneurial confidence is fatal in the critical period of China’s economic growth momentum shift and transformation of development patterns.Combining entrepreneurial confidence with regional characteristics,this paper selects 24 provinces and cities in the eastern,central and western regions of China from January 2010 to March 2018 as research samples,to study regional asymmetric effects of monetary policy effects.The nonlinear dynamic panel is used as research model and the three aspects of direction asymmetry,time and space inconsistency in the space-time dimension explain the asymmetric effect of monetary policy.The results show that:the impacts in a moderately tight monetary policy environment is less than that generated in a moderately expanding monetary policy environment;The central and western regions usually amplify the contraction effect of monetary policy on output due to feedback from entrepreneurs’ confidence;The expansion effect of the eastern region over the central and western regions in a moderately loose monetary policy environment,and in the central and western regions,there is a Ushaped relationship because the level of entrepreneurial confidence does not exceed the threshold and is not enough to respond and expand the output effect;Price-based monetary policy control tools are more effective under the influence of entrepreneurial confidence.

关 键 词：企业家信心 货币政策 区域经济增长 动态非线性面板 区域非对称效应 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]