区域人口非传染性疾病风险预测理论与方法研究  

Study on theory and method of risk prediction of non-communicable diseases in regional populations

作　　者：张明月 高星[1,2] ZHANG Ming-yue;GAO Xing(School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学公共卫生学院,北京100069 [2]环境毒理学北京市重点实验室,北京100069

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2019年第8期1345-1348,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(7110001)

摘　　要：目的建立区域人口非传染性疾病风险预测新理念、基本理论和理论模型。为研究制定系统风险控制管理对策和整体能力提升提供科学依据,避免决策失误、应对准备不足和机遇丧失,将风险降到最低水平。方法采用对比分析法、专家咨询法和指数预测模型法。结果建立了以风险评估为核心的非传染性疾病风险预测新理念、基本理论体系框架;创建了非传染性疾病风险预测模型,并进一步提出了干预系数数量和大小确定的方法与依据。结论首次提出较为系统的区域人口非传染性疾病风险预测基本理论体系框架,并创建预测模型,为开展风险预测工作、理论政策研究、标准规范、体系规划和资源配置,提供理论支持和评价工具。Objective The aim of this study was to establish a new concept, basic theory and theoretical model for the risk prediction of non-communicable diseases in regional populations, and thus to provide scientific reference for research and development of systematic risk control management strategies and overall capacity improvement, to avoid decision-making mistakes, inadequate preparation and loss of opportunities, and reduce risks to the lowest level. Methods Using the methods of comparative analysis, expert consultation method and index prediction model were adopted. Results A new concept and basic theoretical system framework for non-communicable disease risk prediction based on risk assessment was established.A non-communicable disease risk prediction model was established, and the method and basis for determining the number and size of intervention coefficients were further proposed. Conclusion For the first time, the basic theory, index classification and system framework of the regional population non-communicable disease risk prediction were proposed, and the prediction model was created to carry out regional population health risk prediction, theoretical policy research, standard specification, system planning and resource allocation. Also support the theory and evaluation tools.

关 键 词：非传染性疾病 风险预测模型 干预系数 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]