一种基于技术状态变更的可靠性综合评估方法  

A Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Reliability Based on Technology State Change

作　　者：鞠成玉 杨胜学[1] 王守敏[1] JU Cheng-yu;YANG Sheng-xue;WANG Shou-min(Chinese Flight Test Establishment,Xi’an 710089,China)

机构地区：[1]中国飞行试验研究院,西安710089

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2019年第4期179-183,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金："十三五"装备预先研究基金资助项目(6141B05030105)

摘　　要：目前,航空武器装备在外场鉴定阶段可靠性评价一般采用指数分布进行计算,但是指数分布具有较大的局限性,并且外场鉴定过程中存在技术状态频繁变更的问题。针对上述问题,利用多种分布进行数据建模,并采用贝叶斯数据融合和蒙特卡罗等方法结合建模求解,给出最终状态的航空武器装备可靠性评估结果,对于后续开展可靠性评价具有重要意义。At present,the reliability evaluation of the aircraft weapon equipment in the field identification stage generally takes the exponential distribution,but the exponential distribution has a great limitation,and the problem that the technical state frequently changes in the field identification process exist. In view of the above problems,the paper uses various distributions to model the data,and uses Bayesian data fusion and Monte Carlo method to solve the problem,and gives the final state aircraft weapon equipment reliability evaluation results,which is great significance for the subsequent reliability evaluation.

关 键 词：技术状态 可靠性 综合评估 蒙特卡罗 威布尔分布 飞行试验 

分 类 号：TJ01[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术] V217[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]