海南地区新型雷电预警系统预警效率的评估与分析  

Evaluation and Analysis of Early Warning Efficiency of the New Lightning Early Warning System in Hai Nan

作　　者：张长秀 牟善军[1] 刘全桢[1] 毕晓蕾[1] 刘宝全[1] 高剑[1] 刘璇[1] 姜辉[1] 刘娟[1] Zhang Changxiu;Mou Shanjun;Liu Quanzhen;Bi Xiaolei;Liu Baoquan;Gao Jian;Liu Xuan;Jiang Hui;Liu Juan(State Key Laboratory of Safety and Control for Chemicals, SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering,Shandong,Qingdao,266071)

机构地区：[1]中国石化青岛安全工程研究院化学品安全控制国家重点实验室

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2019年第3期7-10,共4页Safety Health & Environment

摘　　要：基于2017年5-8月全国雷电监测定位系统ADTD探测到的闪电定位数据,根据标准IEC-62793中对雷电预警系统预警效率评估的定义,对海南地区部分雷电预警站点的预警效率进行了统计分析。海南地区新型雷电预警系统的平均有效预警率(MPOD)约为85%,高于大部分雷电预警系统的有效预警率;对闪电事件的预警率平均可达到95%,表明可以对发生在预警站点有效覆盖范围内95>的闪电提供有效预警;平均错误预警率(MFAR)约为73%,与各类预警系统相比,错误预警率偏高;预警提前期的平均值和中值分别为13.9min和9.6min。This paper analyzed the early warning efficiency of new type lightning early warning systems in Hai Nan based on the data obtained by ADTD lightning monitoring and location system in China from May to August in 2017,witli the assessment parameters defined in IEC -62793. The mean probability of detection ( POD ) of tiie new type lightning early warning systems in Hai Nan was about 8 5 %,which was higher than most lightning early warning systems. The mean predicted flash ratio (MPFR) was about 9 5 %, which meant about 9 5 % of the discharges inside the center area ( AC ) were correctly warned. The mean false alarm ratio( FAR) was about 7 3 %,which was slightly higher compared with other lightning early warning systems. The mean and medium value of lead time(LT) was 13. 9minute and 9. 6minute, respctively.

关 键 词：雷电预警系统 预警率 预警闪电比例 预警提前期 

分 类 号：TE38[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]