1961—2010年中国气候生产潜力时空格局变化及其潜在可承载人口分析  

Climatic potential productivity and population carrying capacity in China from 1961 to 2010

作　　者：徐雨晴[1] 周波涛[2] 於琍[1] 徐影[1] XU Yu-qing;ZHOU Bo-tao;YU Li;XU Ying(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2019年第2期84-91,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606301);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201731)共同资助

摘　　要：以气温、降水格点数据为基础,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了中国气候生产潜力(CPP),并从气候的角度估算了耕地上气候资源潜在可承载的人口数,以便增强了解气候变化的影响及气候资源最大人口支撑能力。结果表明:1961—2010年中国CPP总体呈突变性增加趋势,1987年为突变点,年最低、最高及平均值分别为689. 18、814. 56和744. 05 g·m^(-2)·a^(-1)。空间上呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布,其中高值区主要分布在华南大部,最高值达2103. 56 g·m^(-2)·a^(-1);低值区主要分布在西、北部地区,最低值为39. 28 g·m^(-2)·a^(-1)。2001—2010年中国大部分地区CPP年平均值相对于1961—2010年多年平均值变化幅度不大,变化比例高的地区基本上分布于中国西、北部,其中增加的区域达82%,主要分布在华东地区、新疆西部、西藏北部及青海大部,远大于缩减的区域(17%)。1995—2010年,基于公里网格的耕地气候潜在可承载人口为46—2180人·km^(-2),全国平均值最低的年份为1130人·km^(-2),对应的实际人口为0—49729人·km^(-2),全国平均值均不高于137人·km^(-2);全国实际总人口为11. 43—13. 04亿,耕地气候潜在可承载总人口为19. 72—20. 22亿,前后比值为58%—65%。这表明,中国耕地生产力未达到气候生产潜力,尚有一定的开发潜力;实际人口在中国大部分地区均没有超出气候资源潜在可承载的最大人口,然而在少数省市(如生态环境脆弱的青海省以及经济发达的大城市及沿海地区)已超出。Climatic potential productivity (CPP) was calculated and population carrying capacity was evaluated for China using Thornthwaite Memorial model and annual temperature and precipitation data from a new gridded daily dataset (CN05.1),in order to further enhance the understanding of the impact of climate change and the greatest possible supporting capacity of climate resources.The results show that the annual CPP increased dramatically,and the mutation point was in 1987,with a minimum of 689.18 g · m ^-2 · a ^-1 ,a maximum of 814.56 g · m ^-2 · a^-1 and a mean of 744.05 g · m^-2 · a ^-1 from 1961 to 2010.The CPP varied in different regions with a zonal distribution of gradually increasing from northwest to southeast of China.Regions with the CPP larger than 1800 g · m ^-2 · a ^-1 were distributed in most areas of South China,with the highest value of 2103.56 g · m ^-2 · a^-1 .Regions with the CPP lower than 300 g · m ^-2 · a^-1 were mainly distributed in western and northern China,with the lowest value of 39.28 g · m^-2 · a ^-1 . The area with an increasing of the CPP (82%) was larger than that with a decreasing of the CPP (17%) over 2001-2010,relative to 1961-2010.However,the magnitude of variations in most areas in China was very small relative to 1961- 2010,with relatively greater variations distributed in the western and northern China.The climatic potential population carrying capacities of croplands in China ranged from 46 to 2180 persons/km ^2 from 1995 to 2010,with annual average values of no less than 1130 persons/km ^2.The actual population ranged from 0 to 49729 persons/km ^2 ,with annual average value of no more than 137 persons/km ^2.The ratio of actual total population to climatic potential population carrying capacities was in the range of 58%- 65%.The actual productivity of croplands was less than climatic potential productivity,and the actual population was not beyond the scope of climatic potential population carrying capacities in most areas of China.Therefore,there is a certain pote

关 键 词：气候生产潜力 人口承载力 耕地 ThornthwaiteMemorial模型 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162[农业科学—农业气象学]