汛期西南涡暴雨的数值模拟研究  

Research and Numerical Simulation of a Torrential Rain Caused by the Southwest China Vortex during Flood Period

作　　者：程晓龙[1,2] 李跃清 徐祥德[3] 衡志炜 CHENG Xiaolong;LI Yueqing;XU Xiangde;HENG Zhiwei(Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [3]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2019年第2期359-367,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406001);国家自然科学基金项目(91337215;41275051);四川省应用基础研究重点项目(2016JY0046)

摘　　要：利用西南区域数值预报模式系统SWCWARMS,结合全国汛期高空加密观测资料,对2013年6月29—30日的一次西南涡暴雨过程进行数值模拟和敏感性试验。结果表明,与控制试验相比,同化试验模拟的降雨与实况更为接近,并成功模拟出四川东部的强降雨中心,对于西南涡的模拟,同化试验西南涡出现时间更早,强度更强。并且,通过两组试验初值差异对比发现,同化试验初值在四川盆地对流层中低层表现出更强的低压,更强的涡度以及更强的旋转风扰动,四川盆地西部边坡也存在更强的上升气流,这都有利于西南涡的发生、发展。另外,同化汛期高空加密观测资料对强降雨中心单站的预报改进也较明显。因此,加强汛期加密气象观测,有利于揭示西南涡的发生、发展及其降雨天气影响,也有助于提升数值预报业务技术水平。A simulation and sensitivity test of a rainstorm caused by the Southwest China Vortex(SWCV)from 29 to 30 June 2013 was done based on the intensive observation during flood period,using the Southwest Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System(SWCWARMS).The results showed that compared with the control experiment,the distribution of rainfall in assimilation experiment was more similar with the actual precipitation and the assimilation experiment successfully simulated the heavy rainfall center in eastern Sichuan.In vortex simulation,it exhibited earlier generation of SWCV and also its stronger vorticity.Meanwhile,seen from the differences of two experiments,the lower pressure,stronger vorticity and larger rotational wind turbulence could be figured out at the initial values in the assimilation experiment at the middle-low troposphere in Sichuan Basin.There was a stronger upward motion,which promoted the generation and development of SWCV.In addition,assimilating intensive observation during flood period obviously improved the rainfall forecast of single station.Therefore,intensify meteorological observation during flood period is beneficial to reveal the SWCV generation,development and rainfall effects,which also can enhance the operational skill of numerical weather prediction.

关 键 词：西南涡 暴雨天气 加密观测 对比试验 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]