基于元胞自动机模型的耕地规划模拟研究  

Simulation Research on Cultivated Land Planning Based on Cellular Automata Model

作　　者：叶丹 郜鲁涛 麻之润[1,2] 彭琳 YE Dan;GAO Lu-tao;MA Zhi-run;PENG Lin(College of Big Data( College of Information Engineering),Yunnan Agricultural University,Yunnan Kunming 650201,China;Key Laboratoryof Agricultural Information Technology in Colleges and Universities of Yunnan,Yunnan Agricultural University,Yunnan Kunming650201,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学大数据学院(信息工程学院),云南昆明650201 [2]云南农业大学云南省高校农业信息技术重点实验室,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2019年第4期899-904,共6页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：科技创新强省计划"云南高原特色农业产业物联网示范工程建设"(2014AB026);科技创新强省计划"国家农村信息化示范省省级综合信息资源中心建设"(2014AB017);科技创新强省计划"云南高原特色农业产业生产服务平台建设"(2014AB019);云南省科技计划青年项目"基于Storm的海量传感信息数据流处理方法研究"(2017FD083)

摘　　要：【目的】为研究耕地利用合理规划管理、生态旅游开发、经济发展提供合理依据。【方法】以云南省寻甸县为研究对象,基于ArcGIS平台,利用Python语言,结合元胞自动机模型(cellular automata,CA),从耕地规划的适宜性、限制性、竞争性3个角度出发,开发了基于元胞自动机模型的耕地规划模拟工具。利用云南省寻甸县2010和2015年土地利用现状数据,模拟出寻甸县2020年耕地指标控制下的耕地规划图。【结果】寻甸县2020年耕地面积为63 277 hm^2,比2010年多了8277 hm^2,未成林造林地、滩涂、村庄等其他地类转换为耕地的总面积为30 598 hm^2。新增耕地在空间上避让生态林地、草地等限制区,并以耕地地力评价为重要转换依据,具有稳定性。耕地规划模拟的Kappa系数为96%,模拟精度极佳。【结论】该方法模拟精度高,可用于解决耕地红线划定、耕地规划方案中的耕地不稳定性问题。【Objective】It provided a reasonable basis for rational planning and management of cultivated land use,eco-tourism development and economic development in the study area.【Method】Taking Xundian county of Yunnan province as the research object,based on the Arc-GIS platform,using Python language,mainly considering the suitability,limitation and competitiveness of cultivated land planning,a simulation tool for cultivated land planning based on cellular automata model was developed.Using the current land use data of Xundian County of Yunnan province in 2010 and 2015,the cultivated planning map under the control of cultivated land index in 2020 in Xundian county was simulated.【Result】The cultivated area of Xundian county in 2020 would be 63 277 hm^2,which was more than 8277 hm^2 in 2010.And the total area of unconverted forest land,tidal flat,village and other land converted to cultivated land would be 30 598 hm^2.The new cultivated land should avoid the restricted areas such as ecological forest land and grassland in space,and the evaluation of cultivated land fertility would be an important conversion basis,so the simulation tools for arable land planning was stability.The Kappa coefficient of the cultivated land planning simulation reached 96%,so the simulation accuracy was excellent.【Conclusion】The method had high simulation precision and could be used to solve the problem of cultivated land instability in the delimitation of cultivated land red line and cultivated land planning scheme.

关 键 词：土地利用 耕地规划 CA模拟系统 耕地地力 寻甸县 

分 类 号：F301.23[经济管理—产业经济]