基于结构式VAR模型的我国核心通货膨胀的估计  

Measuring China's Core Inflation Based On the SVAR Model

作　　者：徐文强 XU Wen-qiang(Party School of the Linqu Committee of C.P.C,Weifang 262600,China)

机构地区：[1]中共临朐县委党校,山东潍坊262600

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2019年第12期1-5,共5页Economic Research Guide

摘　　要：核心通货膨胀揭示观测到的通货膨胀的中长期、持续的部分。通过建立产出、通货膨胀和货币供给量等三个核心宏观变量在内的结构式向量自回归模型,并施加来自经济理论的长期约束对我国核心通货膨胀进行估计。估计得到的核心通货膨胀揭开"货币面纱",将识别出的货币冲击对通货膨胀的影响排除,反映出通货膨胀中来自于总供给冲击和实际需求冲击,对于准确把握实体经济周期波动,制定经济政策具有重要的参考价值。Core inflation is very important to the adjustment of economic situations and adoption of macroeconomic policy as the longrun and persistent component of the observed inflation(CPI).In this paper core inflation of China is measured by means of the structural VAR approach,in particular it is based on long-run restrictions over crucial macroeconomic variables:output,inflation(CPI)and money supply.With this approach,core inflation is defined as that component of observed inflation due to supply shock and real demand shock.Then the core inflation is estimated and compared with the observed inflation.Estimated core inflation is thought to be more helpful than observed inflation.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 核心通货膨胀 结构式VAR模型 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]