阜阳市天然气能源系统模型研究  

Study on Model of Natural Gas Energy System of Fuyang City

作　　者：郝云力[1] 韩旭斌 王茂华[3] HAO Yunli;HAN Xubin;WANG Maohua(College of Information Engineering,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang 236041,Anhui,China;Fuyang Civil AviationAuthority,Fuyang 236040,Anhui,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang 236041,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]阜阳师范学院信息工程学院,安徽阜阳236041 [2]阜阳市民用航空局,安徽阜阳236040 [3]阜阳师范学院数学与统计学院,安徽阜阳236041

出　　处：《能源与节能》2019年第4期43-45,共3页Energy and Energy Conservation

基　　金：阜阳师范学院校级课题研究项目(2018FSKJ06ZD)

摘　　要：为科学合理地对阜阳市天然气能源进行研究和预测,提出了天然气能源的logistic模型。以统计检验估计法对模型中的天然气经济增长系数和天然气对阜阳市的需求最大缺口量进行了预测估计,借由《安徽统计年鉴》数据定量分析了未来10 a阜阳市天然气的发展趋势,为阜阳市的天然气能源系统提供了合理的供需参考及城市能源系统的安全战略参考。This paper presented a logistic model of natural gas energy for scientific and reasonable analysis and prediction of natural gas energy in Fuyang City.By the statistical test estimation method,this paper predicted and estimated the economic growth coefficient of natural gas in the model and the maximum gap of natural gas demand in Fuyang City and quantitatively analyzed the development trend of natural gas in Fuyang City in the next 10 years based on the data of Anhui Statistical Yearbook,which provides reasonable reference for supply and demand and a safety strategy reference for urban energy system of the natural gas energy system in Fuyang City.

关 键 词：阜阳市 天然气 LOGISTIC模型 能源系统 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]