制度质量与中国对外贸易的门槛效应分析——基于“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据  

The Analysis of Threshold Effect on Institutional Quality and China’s the Foreign Trade: Based on the Panel Data of Countries Along“the Belt and Road”

作　　者：康益敏 朱先奇[1] 李雪莲[2] KANG Yi - min;ZHU Xian -qi;LI Xue - lian(School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024 , China;School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西太原030024 [2]山西大学计算机与信息技术学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《经济问题》2019年第4期117-122,共6页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"省域装备制造业绿色创新效率评价;空间关联及提升路径研究"(41401655);山西省软科学基金项目"金融发展;资源禀赋与区域承接产业转移差异研究"(2016041016-2)

摘　　要：随着"一带一路"对外建设的逐步推进,中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的联系日益紧密,贸易交往也越来越频繁,并且给中国带来了巨大的发展契机。对中国对外贸易的影响因素以及这些因素门槛效应的研究,有利于中国最大化利用"一带一路"建设带来的机遇。以中国与"一带一路"沿线主要国家为研究对象,采用2006-2016年对外贸易面板数据,构建面板门槛回归PTR模型,实证检验制度质量对中国与"一带一路"沿线主要国家对外贸易的门槛效应。研究结果表明,市场潜力和自由贸易协定对中国对外贸易有显著的正影响,而市场规模则对中国对外贸易有显著的负影响;制度质量会促进中国与经济发展水平较低国家的对外贸易,抑制中国与经济发展水平较高国家的对外贸易。最后根据以上结论提出了促进中国对外贸易的相关建议。With the gradual advance of "the Belt and Road" foreign strategy, China is increasingly closely connected with countries along "the Belt and Road", and the trade between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" is getting better and better, which brings great opportunities for China’s development. The study on the factors influencing of China’s foreign trade and the threshold effect of these factors is beneficial for China to maximize the opportunities brought by "the Belt and Road" initiative. Taking China and the major countries along the " the Belt and Road " as the research object, the panel threshold regression PTR model was constructed by using the foreign trade panel data from 2006 to 2016, and the threshold effect on institutional quality to the foreign trade between China and the major countries along the " the Belt and Road " was empirically tested. The results show that the market potential and the free trade agreement have a significant positive impact on China’s foreign trade while the market size has a significant negative impact on China’s foreign trade. The quality of the system will promote China’s foreign trade with low level of economic development, restrain our country from Foreign trade in countries with high level of economic development. Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote China’s foreign trade.

关 键 词：制度质量 对外贸易 面板门槛模型 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F752.1[经济管理—国际贸易]